Off Topic

Chavez and Venezuela Q&A

2007-01-29T12:55:00.000Z

If you have interesting questions about Chavez and Venezuela and would like to see a panel of experts answering them, you can ask the questions to a panel of experts here. Alternatively, you can email your question to ask@ft.com.

The Q&A session is being held by the Financial Times and the people in charge of selecting and answering the questions will be the Financial Times Latin American editor, Richard Lapper, the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC, Mark Weisbrot, and the former Chief Economist of the Venzuelan National Assembly, Francisco Rodriguez.

Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Evo Morales on the Conflicts

2007-01-12T18:36:00.000Z

Evo has finally returned from his trip to Nicaragua. Bolivian Blog Plan B (in Spanish) reports that he has made a statement to Bolivia on the conflcits. Plan B makes a summary of what Evo said and what he did not say. The following is a translation of Plan B's post for those who do not understand Spanish:

What Evo said:

Manfred Reyes is responsible for what happened.
He accuses the Governor for trying to hold an autonomy referendum.
Evo assures that the government will guarantee the security of the people.
Evo condemned the violence "of those we know".
Evo defined yesterday's conflict as racially motivated.
He calls "his comrades" to peace.
He states that dialogue is always open.
Evo calls "his brothers and sisters" to a new meeting, in order to get to know what the people (i.e. his supporters) want.
Evo also asks the social movements (aligned with him) to respect the constitution.

What Evo didn't say

He was silent about the deaths or the wounded. He did not say he is mourning the victims.
He wants peace to return.
He did not take the initiave to meet with the opposition.
Evo did not condemn violence from both sides. He just condemned violence arising from those not aligned with his platform.
Evo did not say that he is responsible for the actions of the cocaleros, although he is the president of their federation and it was them who started the violence and who have been blocking the roads for the past 5 days.
He was silent about reported cocalero agressions against the press.
He was silent about the citizen's effort to help those in need by donating blood, medicines or food.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Cochabamba

The Conflict in Images (2)

2007-01-12T16:58:00.000Z

Evo in Nicaragua

The Youth for Democracy meets the police...

... and keeps going.

Both sides meet.

Policemen help an injured member of Youth for Democracy.

One cocalero dies.

The police is finally able to control the masses.

The next day (today) begins calmly...

... but cocaleros start protesting again.

Note: All images are from AP and Reuters via Yahoo! News.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Cochabamba

The Conflict in Images (1)

2007-01-12T16:22:00.000Z

The Cocaleros against the Police, Janury 8th.

Burning Cochabamba's State Capitol and property.

Blocking Cochabamba's roads.

The Youth for Democracy.

Note: All images are from AP and Reuters via Yahoo! News.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Cochabamba

Cochabamba Conflict FAQ

2007-01-12T09:47:00.000Z

I have complied a FAQ on what is going on in Cochabamba, Bolivia. If you missed the genesis of the conflict, you will be able to catch up, while more news appear in the media.

How did the conflict start?

On December 14th, 2006, a day before the Crescent Moon Departments (Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Pando, which form a crescent moon shape in Bolivia's map) organized a mass protest against Evo Morales' intrusion in the Constituent Assembly (here), Cochabamba Governor Mafred Reyes Villa also organized a town hall meeting. In this meeting, he expressed support for the Crescent Moon call for autonomy and 2/3 in the Constituent Assembly. He also said that he would call for a new autonomy referendum in Cochabamba, as he considers that population was misinformed during the July 2006 one, when Cochabamba rejected autonomy with 63%.

On January 4th, the "social movements" aligned with MAS decide to ask for Reyes Villa's resignation for 'treason'. The aforementioned social movements are comprised by only 6 of 35 social groups of Cochabamba's Workers' Union (COD). All of them are Coca Growers Unions, which are incidentally commanded by Evo Morales.

On the 5th they start the siege of Cochabamba. No violence is registered thus far and Reyes Villa says he will not resign.

On January 8th, things get out of hand. The "social movements" start getting violent. Cabinet member Alicia Munoz orders the police not to intervene -because it would be repression. Commanded by MAS legislators, the movements set the Cochabamba State Capitol on fire (here). The government is quick to denounce Cochabamba's Governor as the main culprit, while acknowledging that it was their grassroots movements who set the building on fire. Newspapers report that Governor Reyes Villa had to evacuate the building disguised in a fire truck.

On January 9th, Evo Morales censors minister Alicia Munoz and travels to Nicaragua, leaving Vice-President Garcia Linera in charge. Bolivian police is confused in regard to what their function should be. Garcia Linera supports the cocaleros and says that Manfred Reyes Villa's call for a referendum is illegal. Cocaleros start blocking the roads of Cochabamba, causing at least $3 million in loses for exporters and thousands of stranded travellers. Civic Committee calls for a 'march for peace' to be held in one of Cochabamba's main squares.

On Janury 10th, the cocaleros take over the square designated for the Committee's march. People from Cochabamba, tired from the excesses of cocaleros, reunite somewhere else and start marching towards the cocaleros. There is no violence, but the Civic group, called Youth for Democracy, give 24 hrs to the cocaleros to leave town. Anti-Evo chants can be heard on one side of the street (Evo, Cuidado, El Pueblo Esta Emputado - Evo, be careful, the people are pissed off) and Anti-Autonomy chants on the other (Autonomia, Nunca, Carajo! - Autonomy, fucking never!). Secreary of Cochabamba's COD admits that most social groups are not taking part in the protests and that they screwed up (metieron la pata) by demanding Reyes Villa's resignation (here). The Governor of La Paz supports Reyes Villa and proposes that the autonomy referendum be nationwide (here). Santa Cruz and the Crescent Moon departments express their support for Manfred Reyes Villa and democracy. Garcia Linera says that the government will retreat its forces iff Reyes Villa does not call the autonomy referendum (here). Cocaleros put two people in hospital, just because they had Eastern Bolivia accents. They also get violent with reporters (here and here).

This chain of events leads to...

What happened yesterday?

Youth for Democracy (YfD) get together again and give one more warning to the cocaleros: they have until 3pm to get out of Cochabamba. Once the deadline passes, a force of 8,000-10,000 start marching to the site where cocaleros are posted. There is a small police force in the Cala-Cala Bridge, but they are easily and non-violently surpassed. They arrive to the Banderas Square, where cocaleros are surprised and flee to the Prado avenue. Violent clashes are registered, and the YfD follow the cocaleros. There are more cocaleros waiting in the Prado avenue and chaos takes over. Cocaleros throw dynamite to the YfD and some gunshots are heard, although most battles resort to sticks, fists and stones (here). 400 policemen/women are deployed to deal with the conflict (here).

Reyes Villa is in La Paz, in a meeting with all non-aligned Governors. This, unfortunately leads to MAS pressure groups getting together and starting the conflict in La Paz. They are maintaining a siege of the hotel where the elected officials are meeting and issued orders to take over the international airport, in order to prevent the Governors from getting out or support from coming in (here). Reports of food scarcity in La Paz and Cochabamba appear. Santa Cruz is also in alert and preparing to support Reyes Villa and Democracy (here).

MAS Vice-President says that all 4 members of YfD caught with guns will be processed. Surprisingly, he does not say a word about what will happen to cocaleros caught with guns or dynamite (here).

What is the toll of the conflict so far?

SO far, two people have died and more than 100 are wounded, 3 of which are fighting for their lives as of now. Other media outlets report more than 200 wounded and one person with cerebral death.

The dead are:

16 year old Cristian Urresti, from the YfD. Death was caused by several machete wounds to the head. He was the son of a LAB pilot and his 17th birthday was today.

41 year old Nicomedes Gutierrez, from the cocaleros. Death was caused by a bullet wound to the chest.

Some media have reported a third death, but it is unconfirmed as of now. The wounded are aged from 12 to 65, on both sides. The majority of injured belongs to the cocaleros, though.

Only 400 policemen/women to control 10,000 persons?

Yes. The crisis in the police was caused by cabinet member Alicia Munoz. When police was disbanding violent attacks from cocaleros with tear gas on Jan. 8th, she sacked the newly appointed police chief for repression. The police retreated and the cocaleros were able to burn the State Capitol. She also said that "when the minister is in charge, no governor is [in charge] (Donde manda ministra, no manda prefecto)", making police men and women fear for their jobs if they acted. It is clear now that police acted on their own and were just doing their jobs, i.e. protecting the city. Reyes Villa and the sacked chief of police deny giving orders. So, it is likely that police officials are reluctant to act for fear to MAS' apparatus.

Is it likely for the conflict to spread to other regions?

The conflict has already spread to La Paz and Santa Cruz (here).

What is Evo Morales doing to solve this conflict?

Nothing. Evo Morales is not even in Bolivia, he's in Nicaragua with Hugo Chavez, celebrating former dictator Daniel Ortega's return to power. His trip was not authorized by Congress, so his visit to Ortega should be considered personal and not official. He travelled one day after the Cochabamba state capitol was burnt by his followers, which indicates where his priorities lie.

You are lying because you are a damn oligarch. Evo Morales is the Messiah.

No, he's not. He's a very naughty boy.

So, who is responsible for this conflict taking place?

So far, instead of trying to apace the sides, both government and opposition have been busy trying to make the other look bad.

However, if you view things impartially, the government should be held responsible. First, they are the ones that organized the cocaleros and send them to to Cochabamba. If the government were somewhat more democratically-oriented, they would not have panicked from Reyes Villa referendum call. But, since it was with street protests that Evo Morales got into power, they were keen to use it whenever somebody said something they didn't like. They certainly did not count with people going to the streets to defend democracy and react to their burning of the State Capitol. The view of many cocaleros is "if we could oust [former president] Sanchez de Lozada, we can oust Reyes Villa". Once again, this shows Evo Morales' authoritarian leanings.

Second, it was Evo Morales, through years of complaining about state repression against the will of the people, who took away the state's monopoly on violence. Now, MAS officials are too busy trying to look like good guys, opposed to repression, to make the police enforce the law. Now, anybody (who is aligned to MAS) can do anything and if the police tries to prevent it, we soon hear cries of human rights violations and police repression, regardless of how legal the act was in the first place.

Finally, MAS started the conflict, by burning the State Capitol and, instead of calling a truce, blaming the Governor. This was too much for Cochabambinos.

I hear several statements saying that the autonomy referendum proposed by Manfred Reyes Villa is illegal. Is this true?

No. The referendum called by Manfred Reyes Villa is totally legal. This has been confirmed by the country's electoral body (here). In fact, any citizen in Bolivia who can come up with the necessary number of signatures and agrees to pay the costs, can organize a referendum. The legality of the referendum has been questioned by MAS officials and used as a pretext to sack a democratically-elected Governor who is aligned with the opposition. MAS fears that if Cochabamba wins its autonomy, other departments will follow soon and this will be a fatal blow to Evo's wishes of pulling a Chavez -he's trying to increase his power by writing a new constitution.

What is the international community saying about this conflict?
Not much. Yesterday at 7pm GMT, I looked into the BBC (UK's international edition), UK's newspapers The Independent, The Guardian, The Times, The Financial Times and the Telegraph, Spain's El Pais and US' NY Times and WSJ and none had a word about it. None of them even had the Capitol Burning piece. The papers I found to report the incident were the Miami Herald and SF Chronicle. Today, it seems that BBCMundo (in Spanish), El Pais, the NY Times and Washington Post have started following the conflict. No UK newspapers have done so until now.

In terms of blogs, read Manuel Buitrago's MABB and Publius Pundit (links are on the side bar).

Where can I read updates on the situation?
If you can read Spanish, La Razon from La Paz and Los Tiempos from Cochabamba are the newspapers I follow, although el Deber, from Santa Cruz may become a very interesting read now. They only make a couple of updates a day, though. A better website, with more frequent updates, is that of NoticiasBolivianas.com. It also includes the headlines for all Bolivian newspapers.
For English readers, keep an eye on the blogs I mention above and this one.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales,

Evo Celebrating in Nicaragua, Bolivia in Civil War

2007-01-11T23:05:00.000Z

While Evo Morales is making a congress-unauthorised trip to celebrate Nicaragua's new president with his boss, Hugo Chavez, clashes between MAS supporters and the Youth for Democracy group have resulted in 78 wounded and two deaths: 41-year old Nicomedes Gutierrez, from the cocaleros, and an unidentified 20-year old member of Youth for Democracy.
This is the result of Evo Morales' increasingly authoritarian regime, which called the Six Coca Federations to siege Cochabamba in order to oust non-aligned Governor Manfred Reyes Villa.

According to MAS, Reyes Villa betrayed the people when he called a new autonomy referendum for Cochabamba (according to Bolivian law, anyone who collects a given number of firms can call a referendum, though). So, they sent the Coca Federations, which reached Cochabamba five days ago. On Tuesday, the Cocaleros burnt the State Capitol as part of their protest, in the midst of severe governmental inefficiency, as several officials started to give contradicting orders to the police. On Wednesday, the Civic Committee of Cochabamba organized a meeting to protest the violence and repel MAS. The Cocaleros, however, took over the place assigned for the meeting in order to prevent it from happening. This only led to several hundred Cochabambinos, who repel Morales' government, to get together somewhere else and march toward the cocaleros with the following warning: they had 24 hrs to leave the city.

One day later, the conflict has escalated beyond recognition. The following is a post from NoticiasBolivianas.com of what is currently taking place (in Spanish). I will post more, including a detailed build-up to the situation, as it becomes available.

18h20.	Otro fallecido en los duros enfrentamientos en Cochabamba. Periodista de la red PAT en la morgue del Hospital Viedma afirma que un joven de 20 años falleció por golpes y contusiones. El joven de 1m90 pertenecería al grupo denominado Juventud por la Democracia.
17h40.	En el hospital Viedma ingresaron 78 heridos de gravedad. 70 son cocaleros y 8 son de la Juventud por la Democracia.
17h22.	El ejercito toma posición entre los dos bandos en la avenida Ayacucho y Heroinas.
17h15.	Varios medios de comunicación anuncian oficialmente la muerte de un cocalero. Se trata de Nicomedes Gutiérrez de 41 años, del sindicato cocalero de Chimore (Chapare - Trópico de Cochabamba).
16h20.	Según varios medios de comunicación, existen hasta el momento más de 20 heridos de gravedad, principalmente Cocaleros de las 6 Federaciones del trópico. Los mismos están atendidos en varios hospitales de la cuidad. Los hospitales piden urgentemente que todos los médicos se aproximen hacía los centros de salud.
16h15.	Los manifestantes de la Juventud por la Democracia siguen enfrentándose a los Cocaleros de las 6 Federaciones por el Prado y por la avenida Ayacucho haciéndoles retroceder hacía el centro de la cuidad, con la voluntad de recuperar la plaza principal, todavía en manos de los Cocaleros desde el jueves pasado.
16h00.	Más de 8000 manifestantes de la Juventud por la Democracia han desalojado violentamente de la plaza de las banderas al norte de Cochabamba, los Cocaleros de las 6 Federaciones del trópico que ocupaban dicha plaza desde el día de ayer. La policia fue totalmente rebalsada y hubo duros enfrentamientos con varios cocaleros heridos de gravedad. Los cocaleros piden la renuncia del prefecto de este departamento, Manfred Reyes Villa por haber llamado a un referéndum autonómico. Mientras tanto, los manifestantes de la Juventud por la Democracia piden el cese de los bloqueos que desde el día martes aíslan la cuidad de Cochabamba y el desalojo de la plaza principal de esta cuidad en manos de los cocaleros desde el pasado jueves.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Constituent Assembly

2006-07-03T17:07:00.000+01:00

Ten day ago, my computer broke down and I have not blogged since. The computer's still broken and may take up to a month fixing it (as long as my thesis is intact, I'm happy, I must say). I could not cover the final race towards the Constituent Assembly, but here I am reporting the first results.

According to El Deber, the Crescent Moon has voted for autonomy. The crescent is made up of four departments (Pando, Beni, Santa Cruz and Tarija) and is the economic core of the country. As such, this region is far more progressive than the Altiplano in the west.

According to the graph below, the region that most supported the autonomy is Beni. Meanwhile, the vote is still being counted in Pando, but according to Mori agency's surveys, autonomy has won with 54%. There is no doubt about the wishes of the other 3 departments that chose autonomy and people went to celebrate autonomy after learning the results. Although 56% of the population voted against autonomy on a national level, Evo has admitted the autonomy of the four regions and cautiosly said that it will be up for the constituents to decide on this issue.
On the other side of the spectrum, Oruro is the department that feels most strongly against autonomy. The other departments that have voted against autonomy are La Paz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca and Potosi. Chuquisaca appears to be the most divided department, with 56% voting against and 44% voting for autonomy.

According to Los Tiempos, the change in the way constituyents were elected affected MAS inveersely. With these changes, MAS only got 52,9% of the seats (which is less than what they got in the December elections and the two thirds that Evo was rallying for). The next force in the constituent assembly is Podemos, with 60 constituyents (23,5%), followed by UN (4,3%) and up to 20 groups with 1 to 5 representants (these numbers are based on exit polls and may not reflect the final result).

The important thing is that according to the law passed to call the Cosntituent Assembly (CA), the new constitution can only be approved if two thirds of the assembly approves it (170 members). As a results, groups in the crescent moon region are interpreting the results as a defeat for Evo, with analyst Alcides Pareja bluntly saying that "MAS' orgasm is over".
Other analysts see the results of the election as a cry for the acceptance of diversity and highlight MAS' need for allies and concertation.

La Razon appears more sensationalist and has headers indicating the triumph of MAS and the defeat of autonomies.

Among the blogs, you can find the first results in Jonathan's Business & Politics in Bolivia, as well as Sunday's headings.

Official results will be ready in 25 days. In the meanwhile, you can check the official results in the CNE website.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

A Picture's worth a thousand words... (Update 1)

2006-06-22T19:00:00.000+01:00

Sergio Candia just sent me a picture from La Paz.

The three amigos appear to be having a great time. This is probably the only thing that Bolivia got out of the ALBA deal with the dictatorships of Cuba and Venezuela.

Thanks Sergio!

Update 1: La Razon reports that the piece of propaganda you see in the picture has already been replaced.

Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Cuba, Fidel Castro, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Evo Against the Empire

2006-06-15T18:18:00.000+01:00

During a Che Guevara celebration, Evo said that he was willing to take arms in order to defend himself, Cuba and Venezuela from the empire. According to La Razon, he said

It is not the people that rises against the empire anymore. What we are having
is the empire rising against the people. And, if it did so in Cuba, Venezuela,
in Bolivia we are willing to face and defend, also with arms, the motherland,
the natural resources, and those social transformations. (sic)

He also said that some 10 years ago he said that in time there would not be only one Cuba, but several. He said that he was not wrong, and that now we have two commanders of the freedom forces of America [Fidel and Chavez].

Ok. So, let's start in the beginning. What was Evo doing celebrating Che Guevara? Che Guevara was nothing but an assassin and a tyrant. I know that Che Guevara followers always say that he died for his ideals and that that is always very commendable. But in reality, what he did was more like kill for his ideals. And were we to stick to history and not to the romantic notion of Motorcycle Diaries and the like, we have in Che Guevara a foremost example of human garbage (read about the real Che here). So, the fact that Evo was celebrating him already says much. Also, people who follow what is going on in Bolivia should not really be surprised about Evo just replicating Chavez's rethoric. He has followed in whatever his master has dictated, what's wrong with yet another one? The US probably has not even heard about this. Plus, we know where at least some part of the 100.000 AK-47s will end up.

What worries me about this celebration is not Che or Evo following his master's voice. Perhaps we should have seen that coming. What worries me is the fact that Evo defiantly implied that he wants to create a new Cuba in Bolivia. And the fact he will probably get armed up to the teeth. Everything indicates that this tale will not have a happy ending. I wrote about a month ago that

Future generations of Bolivians, when MAS is (hopefully) long gone, will judge us and unanimously agree our stupidity. After all, we have had all possible warnings. We have seen what happened in Venezuela and we can be sure Evo is nothing but a puppet. We could also have resorted to our own history, when decades of dictatorships and left-wing governments destroyed the country's economic apparatus. But no, we did not hear anything, we remembered nothing. Lame excuses will probably mushroom all over the place -"we didn't know", "we didn't think it would be like this", etc. But do not get confused. Evo never hid his intentions. We knew. We just chose to look the other way until it was too late.

And it is already too late.

PS: Told you so.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Cuba, Fidel Castro,Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Industrializing Coca

2006-06-13T23:25:00.000+01:00

After a week of relative calm in Bolivia, there is a piece of news that catched my attention. Evo's government will start coca industrialization this Saturday. The plan is to start three factories -one in Chulumani, one in Coripata and the last in the Chapare- with Venezuelan and Cuban financing. While the Venezuelan financing does not really surprise -it may even be useful if you want to view it in light of Venezuela's increasing importance in international drug trafficking (read these posts on VCrisis: 1, 2), that is not the objective of this post.

What puzzles me most is the objective of these factories: Get coca legalized. According to the article, these factories would manufacture coca tea, liquor and coca flour -I know. On January 2007, the plan is to start with the production of food, cosmetics and medicine.

Now... The rationale behind this Evo venture is showing that coca can be used for something different than cocaine and should therefore be legalized. But there is a very important question Evo is not taking in consideration: markets. First, Evo will have a problem just getting into new markets. What real medicine does use coca, for example? None. But let's assume for a moment that such a medicine has been developed in MAS' headquearters and exists allright. If this medicine is manufactured, will it get the seal of approval outside Bolivia? No. Same thing for food and cosmetics.

So, Evo will end up with a market comprising Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela. In the last two countries, their dictators will probably find a way to stick this production to their people, even though some studies have found plenty of evidence about how harmful regular coca consumption can be (if you can find it, the study is at CEDRO). In Bolivia, the market's too small (and already has legal coca) to make a difference in the plant's legal status. So, will these factories change something? Probably not. At least as far as the legal status of the plant goes.

I have already argued that Evo Morales' coca policy is nothing but a catch-22 trap (here). And my opinion since then has not changed. These factories are probably nothing but a way to justify his coca policy to the international community and a get-rich-quick scheme: I think we can safely conclude that these factories will be nothing but a way of transferring the little tax money that the government is able to get to the coca federations -which incidentally have Evo as their president. In other words, these factories will be the cow from which Evo and his hardcore followers get the milk.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Mexican Debate Resources

2006-06-07T10:29:00.000+01:00

The Mexican presidential candidates had their last televised debate yesterday. The importance of this debate lies in that Calderon, PAN's candidate, and Lopez Obrador, PRD's candidate, are going neck-to-neck and the debate could be decisive. The themes discussed were security, governance, migration and foreign policy, federalism and regional development and state reform. Accusations between the two leading candidates were not uncommon.

The debate was also surrounded by an assassination attempt on the family of a businessman involved in a corruption scandal with Lopez Obrador. The businessman was going to show videos involving Lopez Obrador's collaborators in corruption scandals. Nobody mentioned this when security and crime were discussed.

According to EFE, the leading candidates ignored the other candidates, were involved in a war of words and basically said that they were the only ones with chances to win. Calderon said that Mexico has to choose between two projects -his, which is the sensible option and will work inside the law, and Lopez Obrador's, which is not only bad, but is also not viable.

Bloomberg focuses on the fact that Lopez Obrador was first in the polls until a series of ads compared him to Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. So, the debate was a forum for Obrador to show he is not a Chavista. On a second article, Bloomberg notes the opposed models behind Calderon and Lopez Obrador. Calderon's view is that of promoting growth with private investment and increasing competitiveness. Lopez Obrador's view is that state spending should curb poverty and inequality.

The reactions to the debate are mixed. While some analysts say that Calderon got the advantage because Lopez Obrador took too much time to answer questions and others go for Lopez Obrador, based on his self-confidence, many conclude that it was a goalless draw.

The Scotsman, however, reports that Calderon tore Lopez Obrador apart. From the article, there should be little doubt. This article confirms the Scotsman's impressions.

Finally, you can read a minute-by-minute report on the debate here, here and here (all three in Spanish).

Mexico, Calderon, Lopez Obrador, Mexico Election, Mexico Debate, AMLO

Peru Elections: Garcia wins

2006-06-05T09:19:00.000+01:00

Alan Garcia has won the second round of the Peruvian presidential elections. These are good news.
This election was of paramount importance not only for Peru but for South America. Peru was deciding the future of its democracy and its prospects for development. It was important for South America as well, as Peru was the next country under the shadow of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez (Chavez publicly supported far-left candidate Ollanta Humala and threatened to cut all ties with Peru in case Garcia won -for the sake of Peru, I hope he holds to his word). It is great to see Peru not following the same path Bolivia chose.

Thus, by choosing Garcia Peruvians have shown that they will not be bought off with a couple of populist slogans and half-truths. They have decided what was best (the lesser of two evils, actually) for them and their future. Contrary to other bloggers, however, if Garcia's previous term is something to go by, I am not very optimistic. While Garcia is certainly the better choice, a mediocre/bad term would only serve to give Humala momentum for the next election. So, thinking in the longer term, I do not think that the Chavez/Humala threat is completely gone.

The following sites have great coverage on the elections:
Publius Pundit has a great roundup, with a great collection of images.

Peru election 2006 has the news on Humala conceding the election to Garcia (here), results as they appear, quick counts and everything related to the election.

Inka's great new blog on Peru, Journal Peru, has a minute-by-minute coverage of the elections.

Peru's Electoral Processes National Office (ONPE) has the official count of the ballots.

Peru's main newspapers El Comercio and La Republica (both in Spanish).

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala, Garcia, Alan Garcia

Bolivian News Roundup: Land, Lies and Economic Policies

2006-06-03T10:11:00.000+01:00

Land
La Razon reports that the dialogue between the government and the Eastern landowners is broken. As no consensus could be agreed, Evo's administration has decided to go on an approve seven decrees in order to continue with his land reform.

In any case, it seems that the dialogue was nothing but an empty promise: The landowners found out that vice president Garcia Linera had announced that the decrees would be approved and land would be granted to the indigenous communities today, while the dialogue was still going on. So, they [the landowners] realized the futility of their actions and stopped the negotiation.

According to Confeagro (the Agro Confederation), it was useless to go with the government over the text of the decrees if they would not accept revisions. Also, they say that the decree is in direct contradiction with the current laws and constitution.

Once again, it seems that this may be the spark that ignites the fire.

Meanwhile, Evo will go to the Santa Cruz central bus station and start the 'agrarian revolution'. His 'revolution' is based on the following principles:

Redistribution: Evo will grant all available fiscal land to indigenous communities and original peoples with insufficient land or without land. All lands that does not fulfill a social and/or economic function will be expropriated.
Gender: The reorganization will give lands to social groups and productive associations, as well as entitle women to own the land.
Forestry: Forestal zones will be ignored. The decree approved by Mesa, that distinguished forestal zones from concession zones will be annuled.
INRA: It will require that workers working for the National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA) speak the native language of the region where they work.
Social control: It will improve access to land in three Santa Cruz municipalities
Annulment: It will annul Mesa's 28148 decree, which, as I understand, made certification of land less bureaucratic.
Value: It will serve to set the value of land

Lies
Evo and other MAS representatives said that they did not really care for reelection. They argued that reelection was an idea proposed by the organizations and social groups behind them. La Razon asked 11 social groups behind MAS whether they proposed the reelection of the president or not and 10 of them said they did not.

The ones that proposed reelection were the Colonists' Federation. From other 8 detailed answers in the article, two social groups were in favour of such a move, two were against it and 4 are undecided. Hardly what Evo and MAS told the people.

Economic Policies
La Razon reports a war currently under way between the entrepreneurs and Evo. The economic policies followed by the current government have not found support from the Bolivian entrepreneurs -and with good reason, I must add.

Seven federations of entrepreneurs got reunited on Thursday and it seems that they decided to make their concerns public by publishing a letter to Evo in all newspapers. The letter apparently asks for sound economic policies and questions Cuba's and Venezuela's interference in the country. Moreover, the president of the Private Entrepreneurs Confederation confirmed that they are seeking to change the wrong direction that policies are taking. He also expressed concern about the Executive ruling through decrees and getting too much power. Finally, he lamented that Evo is creating a poor image of Bolivia in the rest of the world.

Evo answered with another letter published in the newspapers. In typical populist fashion, the letter is full of demagoguery and never really answers the investors' concerns. Evo's letter rather scorns them and accuses them.

Evo's letter says that the 'democratic and cultural revolution' will not go even one step back. Then, he justifies everything he does with the 54% vote he got in the December elections and around 80% of current support. He then mentions several measures that should benefit 'honest and truly patriotic entrepreneurs'. He then accuses the private entrepreneurs of false nationalism, as they do not want the economy to go back to the hands of the state. Then, two questions ask the entrepreneurs why they did not react in previous administrations and to consider their role without political influence, before accusing them, once again, of supporting the multinational corporations that looted the country. Regarding Cuba and Venezuela, Evo defends the treaties with them and says that these pacts are not conditional on anything, as was the rule in the previous administrations. Finally, he also said that now everybody respects Bolivia.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Democracy in Latin America

2006-06-02T12:53:00.000+01:00

Read an excelent article by Dr. Walker, Democracia en America Latina, here (in Spanish). He correctly points out the dangers of populism. The abstract reads:

Tal vez el verdadero dilema que enfrenta América Latina, con esta nueva ola democratizadora y en el contexto más amplio de la globalización, es el que se da entre inclusión y exclusión social. No obstante, este dilema no es específico o privativo de la región por lo que indicamos que, así como en los años sesenta y comienzos de los setenta, el dilema por resolver en América Latina era aquel entre "reforma o revolución", y en los años ochenta y noventa aquel entre "dictadura o democracia", el verdadero dilema que enfrenta nuestra región en nuestros días es aquel entre "democracia o populismo" y que este último (neopopulismo), a diferencia del viejo populismo de los años treinta y cuarenta, aparece como uno de los principales obstáculos, tanto en términos de democratización como de modernización.

Bullseye!

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Peru, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez, Latin America

Evo's American Strategy

2006-06-02T10:45:00.000+01:00

Los Tiempos report yet another paradox of Evo's government: The administration has accused the US of conspiring to assassinate Evo and at the same time have asked to renew the ATPDEA (Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act).

The government say they have evidence of the conspiracy, which is provided by Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. So, they say that they have the obligation to denounce and not hide this information, although they have never, in 4 months of accusations against the US, provided a shred of evidence.

On the other hand, Evo defended his plea for the renewal of ATPDEA with his "0-cocaine policy". Please mind, this plea has nothing to do with trade: FTAs are wrong, you see, but the ATPDEA, that's the real deal. After all, there is no need in liberalizing all trade when just a couple of items will do.

Lots have been written about Evo's problem separating the union leader from the statesman. The problem is at its most evident here. The domestic strategy of Evo to gain the presidency has been simple and effective: denounce everything those oligarchs in power do, in order to rally the discontent masses behind him. Then, those oligarchs in power were forced to reach a compromise, in order to avoid further problems, thus giving Evo increasing amounts of power. Evo clearly thinks that he can work the US similarly. He probably believes that by accusing the US, he will affect their stability enough so that they jump in joy at the first sign of reconciliation from his part.

Sad.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Could this be the beginning of the end?

2006-05-31T13:29:00.000+01:00

The CAO (Camara de Agropecuarios del Oriente) has announced that they will resist Evo's plans of land reform. To do so, they will create defense committees and did not rule out conflict against the 'intruders'. Any casualties will be the sole responsibility of the government, they said. Anapo (Asociacion Nacional de Productores de Oleaginosas) also supports the measure and says that their rights have to be defended by any means necessary. Read it here.

Evo, on the other hand, has started using an strategy to divide the East against itself. He has announced that he will redistribute 20 million ha. in next five years and the first beneficiaries of the reform will be the Eastern tribes of guarayos, chiquitanos, movimas, mosetenes, mojeÃ±os e itonomas. It is clear that this strategy is designed to strip the landowners from Santa Cruz, Beni and Pando from any power they may have left. Read it here.

Could this be the beginning of a secessionist civil war?

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Evo and the Bolivarian Dream

2006-05-30T09:59:00.000+01:00

Yesterday I wrote about Chavez's plans for a Bolivarian Confederation. It seems that the plan is serious.

El Universal reports that the Confederation would integrate the member countries politically, economically, socially and 'even militarily'. He also said that the member countries would be Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador and Venezuela 'and I [Chavez] don't know about Colombia'.
The idea of this confederation would have appeared after the CAN's death, which, by the way, was killed by the empire. Chavez also said that it was a good idea to wait for the results of the Peruvian and Colombian elections (he proposed the confederation on Sunday, as the Colombian elections were still under way).
Finally, Chavez said that Evo should be the one to start the process by allowing the possibility of a confederation in the new Bolivian constitution. He then said that he would revise the Venezuelan constitution next year.

Santa Cruz's El Deber naively reports that a confederation would be unconstitutional (and thus illegal) under the current constitution. It also says that this confederation is nothing but Chavez's attempt to gain influence, as opposing the US has isolated Venezuela. Moreover, the eventual victory of Alan Garcia in Peru and Uribe in Colombia would leave two important pieces of the Bolivarian puzzle missing.
(On this point, I must say, I am skeptical. While it is true that Colombia has seen great progress with Uribe, and is likely to keep on choosing similar leaders in the future, Peru is a different matter. It is likely that Garcia wins this election, but what about next? If Garcia does not address the issues that are important for Humala followers, then he [Humala] may be strengthened for the next election and repeat Bolivia's story: In 2002, when Goni won the elections and was elected president over a second-place Evo, everybody breathed calmly and thought that this was it, that Evo would quickly burn out. Fast forward to 2005, where the dissatisfaction about Goni et al's policies translated in 54% of support to Evo. It is possible that this happens in Peru? Yes, it is. It depends on an eventual Garcia term, though. If history serves as a guide, Garcia's will be a disastrous term. If it is true that he has learned from his mistakes, as he and all Humala opposers say, then the cycle may be broken).
El Deber also reports that the opposition has finally appeared. Tuto Quiroga says that Hugo Chavez has finally shown his true plans for Bolivia and interprets Chavez's message as a warning to the world about his interest in excedentary Coca and drug trafficking. Not that many are listening, though.
Finally, a historian points out that Chavez's version of the 'Bolivarian Dream' is a travesty, done to his own image and likeness and has nothing to do with Bolivar's actual plans. Now that's news!

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Bolizuela Confederation in sight

2006-05-29T11:31:00.000+01:00

The last episode of Chavez' talkshow Alo Presidente was recorded in Bolivia (Tiawanaku) and included a glimpse into the dictator's first draft for the next Bolivian Constitution. According to Los Tiempos, Chavez said that at least 81% of the vote should support MAS, so that they can approve an

anti-neoliberal [constitution] that establishes a true republic, gives back the rights to the indigenous peoples, the children, renews the right to health, education, the right to dispose of our natural resources and, in sum, guarantees the right to life. It should also prohibit the privatization of hidracarbons (...).

First of all, our current constitution guarantees all of those rights. Then, it is interesting to notice he does not say anything about other rights... free speech, for example. And finally.... from an economic standpoint, an explicitly anti-neliberal constitution will be the deathknell for the Bolivian economy. Investment will dry up in a second and poverty will increase exponentially.

Chavez also accused -once again- the US of conspiracy against Evo and lent two helicopters for Morales use.

Bolivarian - Indoamerican Confederation
He also proposed the creation of a 'Patria Grande' under the name of Bolivarian - Indoamerican Confederation, which would unite Bolivia, Venezuela 'and others'. Obviously, no one else would want to get into it and it would be Bolivia and Venezuela. Each time I read the newspaper I see a new blow against democracy. Then again, perhaps I should stop worrying about Bolivian democracy and realize it has been dead ever since Carlos Mesa was ousted and the constitutional successor was not allowed to assume his mandate.

Amazing. Chavez is following Hitler's steps one by one, from the failed coup to the annexation of a territory... What now?

It is funny, in a way: Evo said (wrongly) that Melgarejo (a Bolivian president in the 1800s) gave all the Acre to Brazil region in exchange for two horses (in reality it was a war. Not that he cares much). Now he has given the entire country for two helicopters.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Elections in Colombia

2006-05-29T11:15:00.000+01:00

Colombia held presidential elections yesterday. Many saw the elections as a referendum on Alvaro Uribe's first term and he was expected to win by a landslide. Well, it seems that Colombians elected with their head and voted for the best possible candidate: Uribe was reelected with 62.22% of the votes (here). After Uribe's impressive first term, this can only improve Colombia's prospects.

Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit has an excellent roundup of all the blog and other news sources on the event.

Boz has a list of five important points to consider on the wake of Uribe's reelection.

Enjoy. Uribe's reelection is a glimpse of hope for the region.

Colombia, Kolumbien, Uribe, Colombia Elections

"Evo is here to stay"

2006-05-27T11:32:00.000+01:00

Chavez and Cuban vice president Lage went to Evo's launch of campaign for the Constituent Assembly (read about it here). Chavez told the public, straight away, that

Evo is here to stay. The Constituent Assembly is just the beginning.

Well, something tells me he means every word. Even if Garcia Linera has openly disagreed with Evo's plans to support reelection and increase the mandate, thus casting doubts on MAS' official stand on the issue, chances are that his voice will not be heard when it matters.

Evo has not make any pronouncements either in favor or against reelection. He just said that it was the social groups and the people who wanted reelection, not him (I wonder how long will it take until he says that his presidency is God's will, destiny or something to that effect). Thus, as he is nothing but a public servant, and it is not his place to be in favor or against reelection, he will just have to obey the people. So, even if Garcia Linera could convince MAS to reject reelection, what can Evo do if the constituents, as voted for the people and representing the people want him there for the next two, three or five decades?

Do not be fooled by Garcia Linera. Even though his concern may be genuine -we will never know-, I'd rather listen to the real Bolivian ruler, Hugo Chavez.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

The Future of Bolivia under Evo

2006-05-25T10:09:00.000+01:00

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Reelection - The Small Print

2006-05-25T09:51:00.000+01:00

Yesterday, I posted on Evo's reelection plan for the Constituent Assembly (CA). Well, after reading Cochabamba's Los Tiempos, it seems we had only half the story. Under the current constitution, a presidential mandate lasts 5 years and everybody assumed that MAS' reelection meant that the maximum mandate for a president (read Evo) would be ten years. Wrong!

MAS Senator Antonio Peredo said it was paramount that Morales stayed in power until all structural changes were enforced. He believes that 10 years is the minimum time and it would serve just to put things in place. On the other hand, 20 years would be enough to consolidate all structural changes. So, MAS will not only propose reelection, but to increase the length of the presidential mandate to 10 years.

The thing is, you see, that democracy is a foreign invention, imposed by colonial powers and oligarchs who used to cut the hands of any indigenous person who learnt to write... It must be stopped at any cost.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Reelection

2006-05-24T09:30:00.000+01:00

Today's headline in La Razon reads "MAS will suggest that the President can be reelected". They are talking of the Constitutional Assembly (CA), of course. The rationale behind it is continuity: MAS say that if the president can be reelected, there will be continuity to the government's policies.

This should be a wake-up call for those that say that the CA is not an attempt to gain unconstrained power. This reelection issue is what the CA is all about. The rest is just decoration, to give the public something to discuss about while democracy is being buried. Once the CA starts, chances are that while everybody discusses something else, this particular bit will be approved.

Once reelection is approved, Evo will be eager to keep pulling a Chavez: He will call for new elections and argue that the new elections are his first constitutional mandate and not the reelection, because what happened under the previous constitution does not count. It would not be surprising if Bolivia receives Venezuelan aid in the guise of Smartmatic machines 'to modernize the electoral process'.

Evo also said that he did not want a system based on majority voting, because that is an imported and imposed model (!). He said he wanted a political model based on consensus, just like Aymaran communities. This comes out as a warning: you better agree with him.

Future generations of Bolivians, when MAS is (hopefully) long gone, will judge us and unanimously agree our stupidity. After all, we have had all possible warnings. We have seen what happened in Venezuela and we can be sure Evo is nothing but a puppet. We could also have resorted to our own history, when decades of dictatorships and left-wing governments destroyed the country's economic apparatus. But no, we did not hear anything, we remembered nothing. Lame excuses will probably mushroom all over the place -"we didn't know", "we didn't think it would be like this", etc. But do not get confused. Evo never hid his intentions. We knew. We just chose to look the other way until it was too late.

So, does reelection come as a front-page news? Obviously not. This is what MAS wanted all along. In fact, I would be surprised if MAS had any plans for the CA besides this one.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Peru Election: Debate Links

2006-05-22T09:23:00.000+01:00

The presidential debate between Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala took place yesterday. According to what I have read, Garcia was a "winner by default", although Humala could stand up to him, leading some people to declare a tie.
I have compiled a list of internet resources for those of us who could not see the debate firsthand. I hope you find these resources helpful.

Peru Election 2006: Humala stands up to Garcia but scores no decisive victory. A nice round up with a summary of all topics discussed.

Peru Election 2006: A roundup of the international reactions to the debate.

El Comercio: Debate en TV, Elecciones 2006. This is El Comercio's debate page. It is divided by topic and clicking on them will lead to a page with short videos from the debate. Very interesting for those not living in Peru.

El Comercio: The debate, minute-to minute. Similar to a football match "Match-cast".

La Republica: An article on the debate, subtitled "much ado about nothing". According to the article, the same ideas as always were recycled once again. There was nothing new to look forward to.

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

On the Brink of Land Reform

2006-05-17T09:36:00.000+01:00

Vicepresident Garcia Linera announced that 2 to 4 million ha. would be distributed to peasants, once again by decree. Evo Morales is expected to sign 6 decrees outlining land reform later today (here). Santa Cruz and Beni are not going to let this happen without a fight, it seems (here).

So, Evo's decrees are expected to follow these purposes:

Reform to law 1715, so that the state would be able to 'reverse' lands that do not fulfill an economic or social role.

Redistribution in favour of indigenous people and communities.

To speed up reorganization of land, including social movements and producers.

Concession value, so that the state can set the value of lands.

Social control, so that land in certain areas be accessed.

Overrule two norms approved on 2005. With this decree, the government strip prefects of the power they held in the reorganization of land and does not accept the creation of forest zones.

So, what does this mean?
First, Evo will try to reverse law 1715, from the National Institute of Land Reform, also known as the INRA law, in order to 'reverse' lands that do not fulfill an economic or social function. In other words, Evo is about to strip landowners of their property. All the discourse about lands satisfying this or that function is nothing but an excuse for taking away the assets of the Oriental landowners. Surely, the fact that this group is the most vocal opponent to Evo's policies must be purely coincidental.

In a similar move, MAS wants to strip prefects of all the power they have. With this measure, Evo is giving very strong signals about centralizing power. Most prefects are from the opposition and have given Evo trouble whenever it was possible. With this decree, Evo starts taking all their power for himself. The fact that the government is no longer supporting the autonomy vote in the forthcoming referendum, while some groups inside of MAS are opting for the 'NO' vote, is nothing but further evidence that Evo wants to concentrate all the power in his hands.

Also, the fact that the government will be the one deciding the value of land is worrying. Today, the government fixes prices for land and transport (here and here), tomorrow, all prices are fixed by the government and we are back in 1982. Since it is the government's belief that free markets are for imperialists or slaves, it would not be wise to expect price-fixing ending here.

And finally, redistribution. From La Razon, it seems that there will be two kinds of winners from Evo's land reform: First, indigenous people. On the one hand, poverty is tied with race in Latin America, so that indigenous people are indeed poor and would welcome such a move. However, poverty in Bolivia is not as discriminating as Evo would let you believe. It is sad to see that poor people not satisfying the 'race' requirement will be left out of the deal. Also, the fact that indigenous people constitute the grassroots support for Evo is merely coincidental.
And second, social movements. It seems that at least some part of this new reform will be an open bribe to social groups. If social movements are included in the reorganization of land, expect a new class of landowners to arise: The union leader.
Destroying what's left of property rights in Bolivia only to give rise to a new class of landowner is as stupid as it sounds.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Documentary: Venezuela, una amenaza real

2006-05-11T13:08:00.000+01:00

I just received a link for a documentary on Chavez, hosted on the Cuban-American National Foundation's (CANF) website. It seems the documentary was added to CAF on April 28, 2006, so it deals with current happenings.

The documentary must be download before it can be seen and is in Spanish. It shows what is really going on in Venezuela. Meanwhile, the world does not give a damn about it and TV stations like the History Channel, UK TV documentary and Discovery are floded with documentaries about absolutist regimes like 1997's "Nazis: A warning from history". It seems the warning fell into deaf ears.

The link I got was attached to the following mail, where you will find an alternative link in Net for Cuba:

Estan muy bien hechos estos videos... Vale la pena verlos y ver lo que no se
muestra de Venezuela y Chavez.

http://www.canf.org/2006/video/2006-abr-28-venezuela-01.htm

VEA DOCUMENTAL "VENEZUELA, UNA AMENAZA REAL" EN INTERNET

Nota de Net for Cuba International

Por este medio, deseamos invitar a todos nuestros Miembros y amigos a
ver y difundir el valioso documental: "Venezuela, una amenaza real".
Dicho material, recoge con hechos irrefutables, el inminente peligro
que el régimen de Hugo Chávez representa para la estabilidad y la
seguridad de todo el continente americano. Ello se ha logrado a través
de una cuidadosa selección de discursos pronunciados por el propio
Chávez, el análisis pormenorizado sobre las relaciones del gobierno
de Venezuela con el ala izquierdista que hoy azota a varios países en
América Latina, y su vinculación con el terrorismo internacional.

Aquellos que a estas alturas aún dudaban sobre las verdaderas
intenciones de Chávez de implantar el socialismo como régimen
totalitario en Venezuela y su política expansionista a través del
hemisferio, tendrán la posibilidad de ver aclaradas sus dudas una vez
que vean el presente documental.

Gracias a la colaboración del Webmaster del Sitio de la Fundación
Nacional Cubano Americana, dicho video logró ser capturado y hoy se
hospeda para mayor seguridad del mismo, en nuestros sitios:
www.canf.org y www.netforcuba.org respectivamente. Usted lo podrá ver
a través de los siguientes enlaces:

http://www.canf.org/2006/1es/noticias-de-cuba/2006-abr-28-vea-el-documental.htm

http://www.netforcuba.org/Videos_Audios/Venezuela_AmenazaReal.htm

"Venezuela, una amenaza real", está dividido en 5 partes,
correspondiente a 5 videos individuales y engrosará de manera
permanente la recién constituída sección: "Videos Online" en nuestro
Sitio de Internet. Además de que se puede ver también en su
totalidad, gracias a la colaboración del sitio amigo:
http://www.ivcdteam.org/index.htm

Hat tip to Valeria Candia, who sent me the links. Thanks!

Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez, democracy

Petrobras vs. Southern Venezuela

2006-05-10T10:31:00.000+01:00

Today's news (1, 2) show three things: First, that Evo will not be able to cruise past the nationalization. Regardless of last week's energy summit, Petrobras is at odds with nationalization. Petrobras president, Gabrielli, said the Bolivian constitution allows nationalization only after indemnification. So, they want to make sure that this nationalization occurs legally and not according to Chavez and Evo's wishes. Petrobras also condemned the appointment of a new board for their Bolivian operations, and said that the government overlooked a series of legal requirements and procedures. In other words, the government is acting illegally (I wonder if that is yet another reason why they are so keen on changing the constitution).

On Saturday, Petrobras gave the Bolivian government 45 days to negotiate the new contracts before going to international arbitration. 41 days remain.

Second, that beyond a crude earnings analysis, the current administration did not consider the effects of nationalization on other investment. Now, investment from Brazilian businesses will be conditional on the Petrobras case. This is bound to affect Bolivia, which has its biggest trading partner in Brazil.

And finally, Bolivia is extra-officially Southern Venezuela. A Petrobras team, including Petrobras president Gabrielli, went to Caracas to speak with the Venezuelan government and PDVSA about Bolivia's nationalization. Only after this meeting is over will they go to Bolivia. Wonder why....

In a related note, the Brazilian government has finally expressed their discontent with Chavez's actions. The government said that one cause for discomfort was that PDVSA guided Bolivia's nationalization.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Petrobras, nationalization, gas, PDVSA, Brazil, Brazilien, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Venezuela Increasing Influence in Bolivia

2006-05-09T09:31:00.000+01:00

Today's newspapers tell of growing Venezuelan influence in Bolivia. Indeed, Venezuela is to open branches for two banks in Bolivia. The banks in question are the Banco Industrial de Venezuela (BIV) and the Banco de Desarrollo Economico y Social de Venezuela (Bandes).

According to its website, Bandes is a "financial agent of the (Venezuelan) State, to attend projects oriented to economic desconcentration". Bandes was created by Chavez's administration and is a development bank. This bank has the power to operate both in Venezuela and on foreign soil. Also, reading to their mission statement, Bandes would probably like to be an alternative to the IADB.

The BIV, on the other hand, is a much older bank. According to their website is was created by the Venezuelan State in the 1930s and nowadays, the Venezuelan Finance Ministery is the majority stockholder. In 1999 the purpose of the bank was modified by law, so that they can now give credit to the agro sector. Perhaps this bank is entering Bolivia in order to help with the forthcoming land reform? According to the bank's mission statement, this bank should only be able to operate in Venezuela. Another hint to Bolivia becoming Southern Venezuela?

Both are state-controlled banks and will, presumably, serve no other purpose than giving logistic and financial support to Evo's soon-to-be dictatorship. Also, it is through these banks that Venezuela will increase its control of the Bolivian economy.

In a separate piece of news, La Razon reports that in the last four months, 1131 Venezuelan and Cuban citizens entered Bolivia. Although the government says that all of these came to Bolivia as tourists, in official visits, for work, business, transit and others, Podemos MP Hoz de Vila points out that before Evo's December election victory, Bolivia did not get as many visitors from these countries. So, he concludes, the political purpose of these visits should be clear. I must say I agree. I do not believe for one second that Cubans are able to travel freely and let alone as tourists!

And to think that there is still people out there that think that Evo is doing everything just for Bolivia.... it's just sad.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

What's Next?

2006-05-08T13:37:00.000+01:00

After the oil/gas nationalization and a strong hint that mining and forestry would follow, the government is now preparing a land reform. Los Tiempos reports that the government is thinking of launching their land reform sometime before the Constituent Assembly begins. This would constitute the second land reform in Bolivia in a period of 53 years. Expect another circus when this happens -presumably before the election of Constituents as well.

Land Viceminister Almaraz said that in case of resistance by the landowner elite, the government will be ready to use public force. Could this be the spark that ignites the secessionist fire?

Another fatal blow to property rights and the rule of law -brought to you by Evo.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Nationalization Hangover (Update 1)

2006-05-08T13:02:00.000+01:00

Now that the nationalization has ended among feasts and celebrations, it's time to go back to the real world. El Deber reports that an Indian enterprise (Jindal Steel and Power) interested in obtaining a license to exploit the Mutun may not go further. Its representative in Bolivia said that the conditions imposed by the government are to harsh and do not really justify the investment: 50% of the steel earnings and 70% of iron. Under these circumstances, the estimated investment of $3000 million will not be viable, they said, although they have sent a reply to the government and are still waiting for an answer.

Also, the president of the Engineer's Society of Bolivia said that Bolivia should accept that the enterprise to work in El Mutun will be foreign, as there are no Bolivian enterprises with the capacity of investment needed ($1000 million minimum). This only confirms what I said in a previous post. The great loser of this nationalization is Bolivia.

Update 1: It's official: Jindal Steel & Power has left the race for the Mutun. This means that from 5 companies interested in gaining rights to exploit the Mutun only 2 are left -Siderar from Argentina and Mittal Steel from the UK. The vicepresident of the Santa Cruz Civic Committee pointed that the process is generating too many doubts -geez, I wonder why. He also said that the government does not want any company gaining these exploitation rights so that they can be given to Venezuela. "We have information of a Venezuelan delegation auditing the Mutun, and our lack of confidence comes from Executive trampling over the studies made by the previous two presidents with much harsher conditions, so that no enterprise will be interested in exploiting these resources", he added. Read it here.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Chavez shows true colours - Evo to follow soon

2006-05-07T12:05:00.000+01:00

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has threatened to stay in power until 2031, expanding last year's estimate in one year. In complete disregard for democracy, Chavez said that if opposition boycott this year's elections, he will make a decree allowing another referendum to take place and secure his position for 25 more years.

The dictator said "(...) and even if they [the opposition] accuse me of willing to perpetuate myself in power, I ask you: Do you agree with Hugo Chavez being Venezuelan president until the year 2031?", making full use of his demagoguery powers -by starting his reasoning in one direction and ending it in another. He then put forward Fidel Castro's example and said that someone sentenced to death cannot have a plan to stay in power and knows that an imperialist plan will anhilate him at any moment, anywhere.

El Universal also has an article explaining Chavez's plans for expanding his power, on three accounts (here). These accounts are anti-capitalism, anti-US stance and expansion of the project -who would have predicted that the next Cold War would take place in Latin America? And there is no better example of how this last part is working than Bolivia. The level of Hugo Chavez's dominance in the Bolivian government is unbelievable. Now, in the last episode of the soap opera, Evo Morales has invited Chavez once again, this time to launch MAS's platform for the Constituent Assembly (CA) (here). In this event, the guest speaker will talk about "the experiences of his Venezuelan peer, the way in which he solved the previous Venezuelan dictatorship -which, of course, had American support-, the banking crisis and the organization of the referendum". In other words, it will be a crash course for turning Bolivia into a Castrist dictatorship.

Sadly, Bolivia will obediently follow Venezuela's path and, despite all warnings, will not notice what has happened until it is too late and Bolivian balseros start flooding the Titicaca lake in order to go to a -let's hope- Humala-free Peru. As I argued some days ago, what happens to the gas is irrelevant, Evo has already won the CA and Bolivia's descent to authoritarianism and economic disaster is unstoppable now.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Oil Wells That End Well ....?

2006-05-06T13:51:00.000+01:00

BBC News report that Spain has accepted Bolivia's nationalization plans as their delegation reached an agreement with Evo's administration (there is now word on what Repsol will do next, however). On the South American front, Brazil and Argentina have also accepted Bolivia's actions (here). So, Evo seems to have gotten away with it. But did he really?

Bolivia is no energy giant, like Venezuela. Therefore, taking a step like that on May Day is a huge gamble -so much's obvious. Evo has said that the increase in government earnings will compensate for the lack of investment from oil companies. The question then becomes whether this is enough.

Some companies have already said that they would rather invest in Al-Qaeda torn Pakistan than in Bolivia (here). Others may not say anything or grab headlines, but will surely follow the same reasoning. And this where Bolivia's losses begin. So, government earning will compensate for the lack of investment of oil companies, but what happens to all other investment now looking the other way? Sadly, this may be one of the least important considerations for the government: if we talk on political terms, Evo has already won his reward -in the form of the forthcoming Constituent Assembly (here).

It is really a confortable position just bash and trash Goni's privatization and contracts and say that this 'reform' was long overdue. It is really easy saying that the prices we negotiated were too low and that Evo corrected a wrong. It is not difficult falling prey to conspiracy theories where the multinational corporations and the rich are always to blame. On the other hand, it is more difficult to make people understand that there are other ways of renegociating prices and contracts -ways that will not hurt Bolivia's prospects.

But, what the hell, perhaps it is only a matter of marketing a myth.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Chavez to visit Bolivia Later Today (Update 4)

2006-05-03T19:37:00.000+01:00

Reuters and Stratfor report that Chavez has announced a surprise visit to Bolivia in order to discuss Evo's nationalization decree. He will bring along a team of oil technicians and will (consider whether to) give Bolivia aid.

This is the last step for Venezuelan consolidation of power in Bolivia. Is it me, or Chavez parading in La Paz is somehow reminiscent of that black-and-white film showing Hitler strolling in Paris?

The visit is scheduled for today (Wednesday) and Chavez is expected to spend the night in La Paz. Tomorrow, the puppeteer and his puppet will head together for the summit in Brazil.

More details as they become available.

Update 1: The purpose of Chavez's visit to Bolivia is, according to La Razon, "the creation of a joint strategy fot the defense of the nationalization of hydrocarbons". This statement alone should show Chavez's hand in the matter and the lack of "sovereignity", which is one of Evo's main selling points. They are expected to confirm Bolivia's position on the issue on the summit to be held in Brazil.

Update 2: Meanwhile, PDVSA and YPFB have sealed an alliance. This alliance will be signed in the Chapare region (the coca-producing region in Cochabamba) and will give PDVSA exploration rights in Bolivia. It seems that nationalization is nothing but a way of transferring rights (and control) to Venezuela. YPFB will become YPFV. The coca producers from the Chapare region have offered their help in order to secure the gas/oil installations taken by the military on Monday.

Update 3: Lula has been quoted as saying that Bolivia's sovereignity cannot trample over Brazil's. Petrobras, on the other hand, does not accept the new terms and has announced the halt of investments and that they will bring Bolivia to trial.

Update 4: Evo will appoint the boards of all nationalized companies by decree (here). So, expect corruption to reach the sky.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Talks on Morales' Nationalization Decree to be held on Thursday

2006-05-03T11:30:00.000+01:00

According to the BBC and El Universal, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Venezuela are going to hold a summit on Thursday. The meeting will take place in Foz do Iguazu and will discuss South America's energetic policies. One of the main issues will be Morales' nationalization decree, which is supported by Chavez and is believed to have a great impact on Brazil and Argentina.

Meanwhile, Brazilian sectors have accused Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez of being a bad influence on Bolivia. "Without doubts, Bolivia's nationalist populism is inspired and supported by the Venezuelan President", said a speaker for the Sao Paolo Industries Federation. "The integration -or disintegration- [of South America] is no longer lead by Brazil, but by the Venezuelan president", he added. Chavez denied any involvement in Morales' decree, but said he supported it. Now there's a surprise.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Evo Morales' Master Stroke

2006-05-03T09:11:00.000+01:00

While most people are still in a state of shock and awe, debating about the nationalization decree's reach and details before saying anything, only opposition party UN has noticed the political implications of this action.

Evo orchestrated the event carefully, so that pomp and circumstance would accompany the event. All newspapers called the day "historic" and all news programmes went on and on about how Bolivia made headlines all over the world -which are, incidentally, true. If we sum to this the banner reading "Nationalized. Property of Bolivians" and the flag beside it, things must have struck a chord with everybody who still believes in class struggle and the rich (foreigners) exploiting the poor, everybody who has to subsist in poverty and near poverty was given a hope that things would really change this time (nobody even considers that this change can be for worse), everybody who does not know the importance of private investment and everybody who does not have a clue of consequences and international relations. In Bolivia, that's the majority.

Whether he was just following Venezuelan instructions is irrelevant. For the common denominator among the people, Evo is a hero who gave the people back what was rightfully theirs. From now on, Evo is part of the popular imaginary as a champion of the poor. Things may swing fort and back, as Boz predicts, and the final details and reach may not be known for a long time, as opposition party Podemos and the oil companies have noted (read Guccio's point here). Yesterday, I talked with my parents in Bolivia and they told that some quarters are even saying that most points in Evo nationalization decree were aleady approved during Rodriguez Veltze's term and are, in fact, nothing new. The only new thing here is the spectacle, which indicates this is nothing but propaganda (please note I have not been able to confirm this point). For most people these will be just irrelevant details and they will not care about them. For them, energy is already Bolivian property and even if they don't get to see a penny, they feel better off.

It is also interesting to note that May Day was the day in which advertising for the constituent assembly was due to begin. While Podemos and UN probably started out with some annoying jingle on a couple of tv and the radio stations, Evo made international headlines. What can Podemos and UN say that will get them votes, when Evo shows them images of the confiscated oil/gas properties and tells them that he did in 3 months what "neo-liberal" politicians didn't do in 20 years and that he needs more support ? Evo has already won the Constituent Assembly, and by a landslide. Say goodbye to Bolivian democracy and hello to decades of Evo.

Update 1: Candiaman posts a comment on a previous post that would seem to confirm this hypothesis: "Today we (bolivians) have been targets of tv and radio spots saying "Bolivia is changing, Evo has stayed true to his word" then follows a basic naive explanation of the nationalization process."

Update 2: Candiaman reports more on the situation in Bolivia in this post. He writes that there are already three different tv and radio spots around: "Now we have 3 more variants of tv and radio spots, one showing a 3 step nationalization, another explaining the after/before using the 82%/18% ratio and the one i like to call Evo: a True Bolivian Hero".

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Ollanta Humala's Reaction to Evo's Nationalization

2006-05-03T09:02:00.000+01:00

Presidential candidate Ollanta Humala denied that he would do something similar to Evo Morales. The difference would be that he (Humala) does not support expropriation or "statization" of the companies in the energy sector, only nationalization. When asked what this nationalization meant, he replied that it was state participation through enterprise ownership, stock shares, strengthening of regulation, taxes and new contracts, but witht the partnership of private investment. Read it here.

Evo Morales' decree does not explain and most of those involved are still waiting for details. Humala's proposal so far, however, does not sound awfully different. Another Chavez alumn at work.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

Reactions to Evo's Oil and Gas Nationalization Decree

2006-05-02T12:07:00.000+01:00

Evo's nationalization decree has made front pages in many newspapers around the world. Reactions cover a wide range of emotions and so far, the key players have reacted as follows:

Bloomberg reports that Repsol and Petrobras may face losses. Oil analysts from the Deutsche Bank AG in New York are quoted as saying that this is a worse scenarion than expected. It is expected that only a portion of oil production goes back to the Bolivian government, not all of it. The managing director of Global Gestion says that Bolivia has impacted on hydrocarbons production and that the impact is mostly psychological. On the contrary, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates says that this will not have a significant effect on energy companies' earnings and says that Bolivia can improve its revenue without affecting much at the companies economics. However, Repsol's shares are down 2.19% (at 12:35GMT).

According to La Razon, Brazilian Mines and Energy Minister described the decree as "an unfriendly action that can be understood as a break from all agreements with Bolivia". Petrobras said that the decree changes current regulation and that in all previous negotiations there were no hints that 'nationalization' would be so hard.

In the same article, Spanish Foreign Ministery expressed Zapatero's concern and hopes of negotiation and dialogue taking place, so that the interests of all parties can be protected. The Partido Popular (PP) said that they expect the Spanish government to defend Sapnish interests and interprets Morales' decree as a failure for Zapatero's foreign policy.

According to El Pais, Repsol would be willing to negotiate new contracts with the Bolivan government. So far, they are waiting to hear details about nationalization and are confident to reach an agreement and stay in Bolivia.

In Bolivia, reactions ranged from happiness (in El Alto, where fireworks were heard) to denounces of fraud and uncertainty. So far, the reactions can be divided in 3:

Support for the government's decree: COR El Alto, Teachers' Union, Miners' Union, Chaco Civic Committee,

Undecided: Santa Cruz Civic Committee, principal opposition group Podemos and Private Entreprenuers.

Against the decree: Opposition groups UN, energy-rich region Tarija and the COB.

According to Los Tiempos, the reactions from social groups in Bolivia is somewhat different:

Undecided: COR ElAlto

Against: COB, ADN, M-17

Coming Soon:
According to Los Tiempos, Evo is planning to nationalize the Mining and Forestry sectors. He referred to the gas and oil nationalization as the "first step".

More photos:

From AFP:
The soldier 'recovering Bolivian property from looters'.

From Reuters:
Note the t-shirt from the supporter behind: "Che, Fidel, Chavez, Evo". Does anybody else feels nausea?

From AP:

The military in control of a Petrobras building.

A well-shot photo from La Prensa, showing the military in control of a Petrobras oil installation.

A list of oil/gas fields and their owners, from La Prensa:

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Oil, Nationalization, Natural Gas, Repsol, Petrobras

BREAKING NEWS: Evo Nationalizes Energetic Resources (Update 1)

2006-05-01T20:24:00.000+01:00

Evo Morales has just nationalized the natural gas and oil industry an hour ago with a decree. Earlier today, he spoke at the San Alberto gas and oil field (owned by Petrobras) and ordered foreign companies to send their supplies to YPFB for sales and industrialization. He also said that if companies were not willing to follow his decree, they would have to leave Bolivia within 6 months. Morales referred to the day as being "historic" and also warned that he would take over all companies that were privatized in the 1990s. With a touch of populist spectacle, he had a soldier install a Bolivian flag on top of the oil field for all to see.

AP News reports no reactions from the foreign companies, opposition, or other governments.

Read the AP News' piece here.

The BBC's story is here.

The UK's Financial Times (here) also reports that Evo has sent the military to occupy 53 oil and gas fields and installations.

According to Reuters and ABC, foreign companies would be left with only 18% of their production.

According to this piece, Spanish government has issued a statement saying that they hope that Morales negotiates the new contracts and keeps in mind the interests of other parties. They also hope that Morales does not send a negative message to investors worldwide. Too late.

Xinhua reports that the price of crude has felt the effect of Evo's shenanigans in Bolivia.

EFE News reports that petrol stations (owned by Bolivian investors) were among the oil and gas installations seized. Some unnamed diplomats said that the decree was much harsher than expected and that they expect foreign oil companies to initiate arbitration or leave the country.

Blogosphere:

Read the whole nationalization decree at Barrio Flores (in Spanish).

Boz's opinion on how Evo will reacto to international pressure can be found here.

Ciao! has two posts on the subject: here (he argues that Evo took the worst possible way and that in 3 months we will start knowing the success of the decree) and here (he argues that YPFB will become a political instrument).

Publius Pundit also comments on the news.

MABB has an international news roundup.

Update 1: A comment left by Candiaman reports the reactions directly from Bolivia:
"the gas stations were literally invaded by cars in just a few secs after the speech ended, by now some of the have been depleted..." and
"Just spoke with friends in Santa Cruz eho are working al petrobras and hace confirmed a rumor, they can´t get in the buildings the military forces won´t allow people to get in."

Thanks for the comment, Candiaman! You can see the full comment below.

Two photos from AP News Agency.

Look at the Cuban and Venezuelan Flags celebrating. A sign of things to come.

The banner reads "Nationalized. Property of Bolivians". Shameless populism in action.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Morales' TCP, Part III

2006-04-30T15:23:00.000+01:00

Yesterday, Evo signed the TCP and ALBA with Venezuela and Cuba. Of course, he hailed this deal as the way of bringing Bolivia out of its misery, but with dignity and sovereignity. Exactly how things will improve with a trade deal with a country that bought $5000 of Bolivian production in a year, is anybody's guess.

However, the consequences of not signing a trade deal with the US will cause more harm than Evo can imagine. According to this article, if Bolivia does not agree a trade deal with the US, 80,000 jobs and 250,000 people will be affected. While people may still buy Evo's demagoguery and think Fidel is a democrat and the US nothing but an evil empire, once their livelihoods are affected, they will not care much about it anyway. Given that in the past month Evo has seen his approval ratings drop by 12%, if the analysis is true, the situation could develop into a major crisis.

To all this, one question remains... where is the opposition?

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Morales' TCP, part II

2006-04-27T12:05:00.000+01:00

Evo Morales is about a Free Trade agreement with Venezuela and Cuba. This FTA, called TCP is Morales' alternative to a Free Trade Agreement with the US. As pointed yesterday, why this TCP should be exclusive and prevent Bolivia from signing an agreement with the US is beyond reason (a noteworthy entry on this theme can be found in Guccio's blog).

Today, however, the Institute of Foreign Commerce notes that Bolivia already has trade agreements with both Venezuela and Cuba. Moreover, Bolivian exports to Cuba on 2005 amounted to an impressive $5291. Those are not millions, by the way. Bolivia exported a miserable five thousand dollars to Cuba. As I asked yesterday: how is this an alternative to the American market?

According to Choquehuanca, the TCP goes beyond trade. It will be also "cultural", but he does not elaborate further. He also points out that coca would be exported to Cuba and Venezuela under the TCP (here, at the end of the article). Suddenly, under the light of these events (1, 2), the TCP starts showing a whole new meaning...

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Colombian Elections Primer

2006-04-27T11:09:00.001+01:00

2006 is the year of Latin American elections. With the first round of the Peruvian elections gone (second still to come), the next big election in the region is that of Colombia. The Colombian elections are scheduled for May 28 and will see current president Alvaro Uribe running for reelection against Carlos Gaviria and populist leader Horacio Serpa.

In order to get familiar with the issues under consideration, the candidates, the way elections work and American interests in the region, go here. Mr. Teslik, from the Council on Foreign Relations, has written a very interesting and informative introduction to the forthcoming Colombian elections. Organized in the way of FAQ, all relevant points are easily explained and a lot of related pages are linked.

If this theme interests you, and you are looking for a place to start, Mr. Teslik's piece is highly recommended.

Colombia, Kolumbien, Colombia elections, Uribe

Government Wants to Take Over Foreign Investment

2006-04-26T10:19:00.000+01:00

Brazilian steel factory EBX is announcing its departure from Bolivian soil, unless the government changes its ways. The current administration is accusing EBX of operating illegaly (so far it has not presented any proofs), while EBX says that this is not the case, that they are a far too big enterprise to be operating illegaly. Obviously, the case didn't go to the courts, for the Judiciary to decide who is right and who is not.

Evo just bullied EBX, apparently, to gain control of it. In an interview with Brazilian newspaper O Globo, EBX President Batista said that the Bolivian government is sending signals that they would be allowed to stay if and only if they were to accept the government taking over 51% of the project. EBX is not interested in caving to Evo's wishes, though. They'd rather leave the country.

Is there any surprise as to why FDI is virtually disappearing from Bolivia?

Lost Opportunity: EBX was going to invest $330 million in total, and already invested $148 million. According to them, this project would have generated 6000 jobs, although a letter to the government reduces this figure to 3500.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Morales' TCP

2006-04-26T09:54:00.000+01:00

Some time ago, Evo swore that he never would sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US, that he would negotiate a Trade Agreement of the Peoples (TCP). The difference, in Evo's words was that the TCP would not be an imposition from the empire and that it would preserve the sovereignity of the countries involved.

Well, today's front page headline is that Evo annouced a Free Trade Agreement with Venezuela and Cuba. This FTA is called TCP. So, Bolivia will have a trade agreement with Venezuela and Cuba, and will be able to sell its products without paying tariffs. Well, any trade agreement is good, but my question is: How is this an alternative to the American market? Most important: Why are both agreements mutually exclusive? Answers below, please.

In terms of figures, Cuba has a population of 11m and Venezuela has a population of 25m. Their PPP per capita incomes are $3300 and $6500, repspectively. So, this is a market that caters for 37m people, with a PPP per capita income of $5521 (weighted average). On the other hand, the American population is close to 300m (is 298m, to be precise) and the PPP per capita income is $42000. From this, it follows that Evo is substituting a huge market, with lots of cash to spend, for a tiny and poor market, where the only person spending (oil) money will be Chavez, to keep Evo screaming about how he defends Bolivian interests with sovereignity and Bolivian soy producers happy. So, if you really had to choose, which one would it be?

Source for the figures: CIA World Factbook.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Puppet and Puppeteer, Part II: The Death of CAN

2006-04-25T09:19:00.000+01:00

The extent to which Evo is dominated by Chavez is already getting out of control. Everything that has happened in the Andean Community (CAN) in the last week is nothing but a hopeless intent of getting two countries out of a benefitial trade deal with the US and bring them back to Venezuela's clutches. Let's take a look to the timeline of events:

April 20th: Hugo Chavez says that CAN is dead and that Venezuela will leave the deal. Evo Morales supports him.

April 21st: CAN Secretary asks for serenity until Chavez's intentions are clear. Exporters in Bolivia ask Evo to look for their markets (worth $500+ million) and Bolivian interests and not for Chavez's.

April 22nd: Chavez announces that Venezuela is officially leaving CAN. Bolivian Foreign Minister says that Bolivia will try to save the CAN and propose a meeting of presidents.

April 23rd: Evo follows Chavez's discourse and denounces Alvaro Uribe and Alejandro Toledo. He says that he understood how Uribe could sign an FTA, because he is an oligarch, but that Toledo has betrayed indigenous people in Peru and Latin America by agreeing with the empire.

April 24th: Peru, Colombia and CAN secretary Wagner say that Evo does not have a clue about what he is saying. Venezuela hears Bolivia's lament and is moved, so it proposes to go back to the CAN iff Peru and Colombia annul their FTAs with the US. Bolivian exporters ask Evo not to be Chavez's useful idiot.

What is clear is that the chain of events that started on April 20th is nothing but an act devised to coerce two countries out of the FTA. Nothing more. Chavez and Evo are nothing but brutish thugs who are unfit to start a civilized dialogue with other nations. They have to use coercion because there is no way anybody would listen to them without it. And, obviously, Evo's discourse about sovereign countries does not apply when Venezuela is the one interfering. Evo is nothing but the worst kind of demagogue.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Peru, Colombia, Kolumbien, CAN, Comunidad Andina, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

The Puppet and the Puppeteer

2006-04-24T09:36:00.002+01:00

On the one hand, you have Venezuelan President Chavez saying that "the empire's hand is behind the current chaos in Bolivia". On the other you have Bolivian President Evo saying that the US gave Fidel Castro a honeymoon period of 2 years 3 moths and to Chavez a similar 2-year one. But the, the US has decided not to give him the same grace period, because he believes that "they simply do not stand us". Why? "It's discrimination". Read it here.

Can't Evo notice he is just an inefficient president with no idea of public administration? Of course not. Because that it not the case... everything that happens in his administration is the oligarch's, the empire's or the crucenhos' fault, not his. He is just a poor indian person trying to make a difference in a society dominated by the rich and white, see?

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, Chavez

Birth of a Bolivian STASI?

2006-04-23T18:11:00.000+01:00

Evo's Government Minister said that the Police could find its end in the Constituent Assembly if it did not modernize. While the police is considered to be one of the most corrupt institutions in Bolivia -which would make a reform long overdue- it is, once again, the rhetoric that worries me. According to the minister, the police had to be "more involved in the social, political, economic and cultural change under way in the country, a profound institutional reform" (emphasis added). Read the note here.

Does this mean that MAS will try to turn the Police into a Bolivian version of East Germany's STASI? Or perhaps some other official will say the exact opposite tomorrow, as it is this administration's custom? Only time will tell...

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Three Months of Evo

2006-04-22T09:46:00.000+01:00

Today's La Razon published the following graph evaluating the current administration.

According to the graph, the following acts are positive:
1. Constituent Assembly and Referendum: Although the article cites this as positive based on how quickly the law was approved (1 month), is does not mention that the CA could signal the death for Bolivian democracy. If we consider that Chavez is Evo's role model, can we still put this among the positives? 'Fraid not.

2. Austerity: The graph says it is positive that the government cut salaries in the executive power half. However, by cutting the salaries of government workers in half, Evo is giving them incentives to become corrupt. If anything, Evo should have raised the salaries so that people working for the government do not have time or incentives to embark in corrupt activities, because they'd earn so much as it were anyway. What good does it make cutting a miserable president's salary in half, when the president is later caught trying to get $30 million richer? This should be another negative point.

3. Tarifa Dignidad: The president reduced, by decree, the cost of energy in 25%. While this is thought to have affected 2,4 million people, one should always be wary of government fixing prices. Today's the cost of energy, by tomorrow we have all prices frozen and a crisis similar to that in Allende's Chile or Siles Zuazo's Bolivia. When will governments learn that markets work best when left alone? Another negative.

4. Propais: In the last few weeks, the government said that it would create 100,000 jobs with $47 million. With only $470 per job (not taking into account administrative costs and the "corruption tax" that this administration will surely apply), it is doubtful that the jobs will last long or pay enough to make a difference. The government should realize that the best way to create jobs is giving incentives and security to private initiatives and not getting involved? Now, the logic behind this item may well be keynesian: the government is trying to boost aggregate demand. However, theory speaks of a closed and productive economy. Bolivia is neither. Therefore, this injection will probably end up increasing imports and not domestic production. I guess investors would appreciate more if the MASistas trying to take over institutions or the Sin Tierras are detained that this "boost to aggregate demand".

5. Pensions: Evo, once again by decree, ruled that pensions will be inversely proportional so that people who earned less will receive more..... what?!? Why exactly should this happen? Why should a person that earned less (and therefore contributed less) get in the more than a person that produced more and contributed more? Where does the money come from? The answer can only be explained with populism. Another negative.

6. Chile. Evo got closer to Chile and is about to start negotiations. OK, one positive. At least until Evo opens his mouth and messes things up.

7. Police. Evo is restructuring the police. While this was long overdue, there is the posibility that Evo turns the police into a political instrument, which would be bad. Thus, don't count this as a positive until it's done (and the police is not turned into a Gestapo).

Negatives: The negatives talk about corruption, loss of soja markets, extortion claims, nepotism and the reserved expenses cases that I have been blabbering about for the last 2 months. There is no mention about the unwilligness to enter into Free Trade Agreements (this is mentioned later in 'controversial actions'), inference into the Judiciary and lamentable state of the rule of law.

Pending: Nationalization, annulment of the 21060 Decree (the decree that ended years of statism and liberalized Bolivia's markets) and the minimum wage, which Evo wants to double. All of them would be negative.

Controversial Actions:
1. Replacement of public authorities with MAS militants, which Evo says is needed to go on with the revolution, is nothing but a shameless attempt to get unconstrained power. Negative.

2. Corruption. Negative.

3. Free Trade Agreements. The government is not willing to negotiate them. Negative.

4. Free Identification Program. Financed by Venezuela, this is nothing but an attempt to commit fraud in the forthcoming CA. Negative.

Balance: Heartbreakingly awful.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Chaos in Bolivia

2006-04-20T22:58:00.000+01:00

A quick read of today's newspapers show a country submerged into chaos, inefficiency and corruption. Morales administration is an easy prey for "social" interest groups that are giving MAS a taste of its own medicine and has fallen into the same kind of corruption it vowed to eliminate.
The 47% of Bolivians that did not vote for Evo knew that MAS didn't have any plan besides the shameful Constituent Assembly and now the lack of anything remotely resembling a plan is starting to show. Moreover, the administration has no respect for the rule of law, the separation of powers and (property) rights, while powerful "social" interest groups are fully aware of this administration's powerlessness, unpreparedness and lack of coordination.
The result is a mess, which does not resemble a country in any way. Just take a look at today's headlines, which I have put in the following categories:

Government's disregard for the rule of law:

Evo wants the Brazilian iron factory out of Bolivia
Evo said in Paraguay that enterprises operating out of the law in Bolivia had two choices: leave the country or be expelled. He was talking about Brazilian iron factory EBX. Now, it is obvious every single enterprise should operate according to the existing laws and those that do not should be punished. Punishment, however, should come once it has been proven, beyond reasonable doubts, that the enterprise was operating illegaly. EBX says it is operating according to the law and so far this is just the word of EBX against that of Evo. Moreover, it should be the Judiciary and not the Executive power the one that decides if the enterprise's guilt and the punishment. By taking matters in his hands, Evo is just showing his authoritarian tendencies and a complete disregard for the rule of law.

MAS attacks the Caja Petrolera de Salud
The Caja Petrolera de Salud is a national health service that is supposed to be "instutionalized", i.e. independent of the government. MAS militants tried taking a hospital that belongs to this service by force. They tried to impose Ascencio Mamani, a MAS militant, as director of the hospital and doctors and nurses had to fight to keep him out. This is just the latest of a series of attempts of taking over government institutions. Migrations, Customs, the Internal Revenue Service, the COD, the Caja Nacional (both health services), SEDUCA and INRA already had to deal with MAS' angry masses. Has anybody been arrested? Nope. They are MAS militants, after all.

Corruption:

Torrico asks for leave and his replacement is denounced
Whoever thought things would change with MAS, was right. Nobody said that the change would be for worse. In just under three months in power, MAS has been caught extorting the public sector workers, the President, (yes, Evo) has signed a Supreme Decree in order to build a road for an extra $30 million than estimated, has had to retire the ambassador to Japan because of corruption and now the Chief of Deputies from MAS, Gustavo Torrico, has asked the parliament for indefinite leave. HE says he wants to clear his name of all charges levied against him and sue former fiscal Catacora, who accused Torrico of using his influences to try to have a family member hired. Yesterday, Torrico was denounced once again of nepotism. According to Podemos, Torrico made FONVIS hire at least 84 persons since January. Among these people, 4 are related to him and members of MAS: his sister and three nephews. Of them, his sister and two nephews earn Bs. 6500 a month and the other nephew earns Bs. 5800. Minimum salary in Bolivia is around Bs. 450. His successor in the parliament will be Filiberto Guachalla. He is one of the signataries of the letter that asked public sector workers for 5% of their salaries. Also, according to some people, his signature is necessary to to get a job in the public sector.

In a different case, President of the Senate, MAS Senator Santos Ramirez, has been denounced for wrongdoings while he was still a MP. It seems that the Tiguinpaya municipality hired contractors from a company owned by Ramirez. According to Ramirez, the opposition is making this up, because they don't have anything else to do. Probably the best response by an accused official yet. Read it here.

Social Movements:

Several pieces indicate that MAS is against an evergrowing tide of discontent. You can read about two conflicts with miners. In both of them, miners are threatening to take over two mines. One is in Caracoles and belongs to Comibol (here) and the other is in Inquisivi and belongs to Grupo Minero Bajadeiro SRL (here). In both cases, the disregard for private investment from the government and the "social groups" is obvious. Most worrying is the fact that the government is not willing to stand up for propoerty rights.

Also, the ministers that were held captive by the people who don't want EBX to go released them, after hours of mistreatments and nobody has been detained because of this. Can you imagine Gordon Brown or Condeleeza Rice being held hostage and the police not arresting anyone? This move will just give the attackers the impression that they were right to trample all over the ministers rights and not be held accountable. More here.

It is not a matter of liking or disliking MAS' administration; in either case, one has to admit that the social movements have stepped over the line. Who are these people to take elected officials hostage? Who are these people to take over private property?

In other cases, the COB will define today if they will support Evo or not (here), while the Santa Cruz Civic Comittee will start a strike if Evo does not attend its demands in 7 days (here). It seems that Evo's methods can also work against them. Funny, in a way.

The Result:

UDAPE reports that Bolivia is losing foreign investment. In fact, according to the UDAPE report, Bolivia is the only country in the region where FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) has become negative: During 2005, FDI grew in $38,100 million in South America, while Bolivia lost $280 million. Although these trends started in 1999, the signals Bolivia is sending are not helping to get the FDI back. Read it here.

It seems there is no light at the end of the tunnel. And, it must be said, most of this capital flight is Evo's responsability.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

90.74% of Votes counted in Peru

2006-04-18T17:47:00.000+01:00

The last results show Lourdes Flores closing the gap on Alan Garcia, as only 0.63% stands between them. With 10% still to go, anything can happen. It seems that the expat vote is going for Lourdes, although this article reports that it may not be enough.
Ollanta Humala is still firm in the first place.

Ollanta Humala: 26.30%
Alan Garcia: 20.73%
Lourdes Flores: 20.10%

Source: Onpe

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

Latin American Populism

2006-04-14T11:52:00.000+01:00

Read the excellent article on Latin American populism that appeared in The Economist at VCrisis.

The article distinguishes between the left and populism, traces the roots of the phenomena and sees the development of populism in Latin America. It ends with the following paragraph:

Many Latin Americans believe that their countries are rich, whereas in truth they are not. Populists blame poverty on corruption, on a grasping oligarchy or, nowadays, on multinational oil or mining companies. That often plays well at the ballot box. But it is a misdiagnosis. Countries develop through a mixture of the right policies and the right institutions. Whatever their past achievements, the populists are leading Latin America down a blind alley.

A spot-on analysis. A must-read.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta Humala,
Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Garcia Asks to Nullify the Expatriate's Votes

2006-04-14T11:32:00.000+01:00

Alan Garcia's party has formally asked to the Special Electoral Jury (JEE) to nullify the votes fo Peruvians living in Miami and Madrid. Both requests would be attended between today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday). JEE members will vote to decide the veredict.
The request follows alleged irregularities in the aforementioned cities. APRA alleges that Lourdes Flores' party was giving flyers and other propaganda, including telephone cards with Flores' picture on them, in Kendall's college campus, where the Miami election took place.
Regarding Madrid, APRA said that about 40% of those registered to vote didn't and cite the lack of organization as the reason.
Unidad Nacional points out that nothing happened in Miami and that this is just part of Garcia's attempt to get to the second round.
Read more here.

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala, Second Round

The Sorry State of The Rule of Law in Bolivia

2006-04-13T10:55:00.000+01:00

This time, I will not keep on writing about Bakovic, who was imprisoned just because Evo wanted to see him in jail (read about this case here). This time I will write about the lack of guarantees to enforce basic human rights in Bolivia. Indeed, Bolivia is starting to look like a Sergio Leone western rather than a country.

This report is about a family, who own a pice of land in Santa Cruz. They apparently own 20ha, which makes them oligarchs in the eyes of Evo. Well, it seems that this family called the police, because the Sin Tierra movement was threatening a takeover. The police attended the call: they did not see anything unusual and went away, leaving the family at the mercy of the Sin Tierras.

However, more than 100 Sin Tierras (ST) started their advances once againt the night after the police went away. They destroyed the fence and went into the unprotected property. In the words of the owner, "They came drunk and on drugs, willing to slit our throats or burn us alive". So they defended themselves: To gain time, they started using firearms, in order to scare the STs until the car was ready. The STs began to try to set fire to the building where the family was. In all the confusion, one of the ST was mortally wounded. Finally, the family got to escape. They had to drive a car without lights on and in the middle of the night, because they knew that their lives were on the stake.

Now the STs are accusing the owner of the land of killing one of them and say that they have people missing. What did the police do? The son and three nephews of the owner have been detained, as well as friends who were helping them to escape, so that the police can find out the one that killed the ST and try him. The Sin Tierras are all roaming free, probably looking for new lands to take over.

The chief of the STs said: "We wanted to pay him $5 for square meter, but he wanted $13, which is out of our possibilities". Geez, I guess that makes taking over property all right. He also demanded the owner to use his lands in an acceptable way. What nerve!

Am I the only one seeing something wrong here?

I hope Tuco at Evonomics posts his thoughts on these events.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

More on Evo Morales and MAS Double Standards

2006-04-13T10:19:00.000+01:00

When Evo Morales assumed the Bolivian presidency on January 22, he clearly said "Reserved expenses cannot go on, reserved expenses only to steal and kill" and swore to get rid of them. He went on to say that he didn't any fear of eliminating these reserved expenses and that they shouldn't exist in a democracy.
Well, yesterday, Evo Morales' MPs ratified the validity of these expenses, which amount to Bs28.4 million. The oppositions thinks that reserved expenses will go towards the MAS Constituent Assembly campaign. Howeverm according to the Ministery of Government, this will not happen. In fact, the difference between reserved expenses in other administrations and reserved expenses in this administration will be that expenses now will be "completely transparent", the speaker for the Ministery said. Obviously, there is no word other than theirs on what procedures they will use to make these expenses completely transparent.
After yesterday's reports on corruption and extortion claims, what will come next?
Read more here.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

MAS: Extortion, Internal Conflict, Nepotism and Corruption

2006-04-12T11:31:00.000+01:00

During the last few days, several news arose showing the true nature of Evo Morales' administration. According to different reports, MAS could be facing their first corruption scandal -which they dismissed as a "mistake"-, while on other sides, proofs of extortion, internal conflict and nepotism appear.

Extortion

Today's front page in La Razon is clear: "MAS forces public sector workers to contribute". The article shows that in the run for the Constituent Assembly, MAS sent a letter ordering all public sector workers to give 5% of their salaries to the party. In what is by now a common practice of the administration, contradictions soon began to appear. Vice president Garcia Linera said that his party would not force anybody to give them money and doubted the authenticity of the letter, while the Chief of Deputies, Gustavo Torrico, confirmed its existence. Torrico then said that this order showed the transparency of the MAS government. "What should we do?", he asked, "As a party use state money?... We work with money from us, we always did it that way (sic)". Torrico also said that the letter had a redaction problem, as donations are voluntary. A copy of the letter is shown below. You can see for yourself the "redaction problem" in the letter. You can also note MAS' motto at one side: Territorio, poder, coca.

Last Sunday, Morales ordered their MPs to contribute to their party. He was quoted as saying: "Here's the vicepresident, bring your timesheets and we will discount [the "donation"]. I have been told that not everybody wants to sign; this is an obligation and is not up to discussion".

Internal Conflict

This is nothing but the latest piece on what appears to be a highly disorganized party. According to this report, the last round took place yesterday when the newly appointed District Director of the Santa Cruz Customs wanted to assume his position. 50 persons carrying signs protested while MAS substitute MP for Santa Cruz, Adriana Gil, supported the protesters. She lamented that MAS is sending workers from La Paz and taking away jobs from Santa Cruz supporters.

This is the last on a series of protests from MASistas looking to be appointed for public sector. The services of Migration and Education, state-run Channel 7 and INRA all have suffered from MASistas looking for easy jobs. Read the whole thing here.

Nepotism

Although MAS has been accused of nepotism from the start (here), things are getting worse. Los Tiempos reports that Foreign Minister, David Choquehuanca, and former candidate for prefect in La Paz, Manuel Morales Davila, have relatives in the public administration.

The nephew of Choquehuanca works now in the parliament, so that MAS is now denying nepotism claims by saying that this can not be the case, as one works for the Executive and the other for the Legislative power, which are independent from one another (the most impressive thing about this denial is that it seems that MAS actually knows that these are supposed to be separate and independent powers).

On the second case, Manuel Morales Davila (not related to Evo), has his Son Manuel and his daughter Marcia in important state positions. Marcia is caretaker president of the Bolivian Customs, while Manuel Jr. is adviser for the president of the state-run oil company, YPFB. There are no denials on this one so far, although MAS stated that they would make an enquiry.

Corruption

This cynically labeled as "mistake" from MAS could be the first corruption scandal to hit the administration. The first article appeared yesterday in La Razon. According to the article, the government omitted the licitation process and subscribed a $130 million contract with a Brazilian enterprise for the construction of a road. Moreover, this contract was supported by a Supreme Decree (N. 28623) and was denounced from jail by Bakovic, the former president of the National Roads Service (SNC), who was, incidentally, imprisoned without a trial and without charges, other than Evo's wishes to see him imprisoned, being levied against him (read more about Bakovic's case here). He said that the contract was signed without the mandatory licitation process and was overpriced. Perhaps this is the real reason Bakovic's in jail?

The reaction from the current president of the SNC (a MAS pawn, obviously) was as cold and cynical as things can get: "We have made a mistake and we will correct it". The vice-minister for coordination with social movements expressed himself on the same line: "We are not an infallible government and is noble to admit the mistake". He also said that the government would take the blame for it in a collective manner.

Supreme Decree 28263, signed by Evo Morales, authorized the SNC to override the licitation process and gave the SNC time to make the cost analysis of the project. Now, MAS is hoping to avoid the scandal by drafting a new Supreme Decree to annul the aforementioned one.

Meanwhile, Podemos has called for the resignation of current SNC president, Patricia Ballivian, and the Minister for Services and Public Works, Salvador Ric. Podemos correctly point out that this is a blatant show of corruption and that it cannot be passed as a mistake. Read it here.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Peruvian Expats (Update 2)

2006-04-11T13:03:00.000+01:00

Results with 82.6% of the votes counted show the following results:

Humala: 26.38%
Flores: 20.51%
Garcia: 21.28%

Source: ONPE

If these results hold, the second round may be contested by Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala.

There is one glimpse of hope, though, which indicates that Flores could be second. This glimpse is given by Peruvian expats. According to El Comercio, Flores is so far getting 62.2% of those emitted by Peruvians living outside Peru. The article also indicates that Peruvian expats account for 2.8% of the vote. If Flores maintains this share of expat votes, and ONPE's results hold, than she will get an advantage of 0.97% over Garcia, effectively winning the second place and going to second round (please note that I am assuming that the above-mentioned results by ONPE do not include expat vote, as only 3,8% of the expat vote has been counted).

Update 1: Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit has recent information that indicates that the expat vote is following the same pattern as the domestic vote, i.e. Humala is coming in first, with Garcia following and Flores just behind Garcia. Really sad.

Read the reaction of foreing investors here and here.

Update 2: Mora y Leon has corrected the post mentioned in Update 1. It seems that that post was the result of misreading this post. Read Mora y Leon's correction here.

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

Too much already

2006-04-11T12:03:00.000+01:00

Yesterday, Evo Morales confirmed the presence of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez for the inauguration act of the Constituent Assembly. He also stated that he would everything in his power to secure Fidel Castro's presence in the act (here).

In a Congress of Women Peasants, he announced that

Comrade Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, has told me that he will be present in the installation of the Constituent Assembly..... We will ask that the Foreign Minister negotiates the presence of Fidel Castro.

I wonder, how is it possible that people still don't realize what this guy is trying to pull?

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez

74.53% of Votes counted in Peru

2006-04-10T21:44:00.000+01:00

Ollanta Humala: 29.59%
Lourdes Flores: 24.89%
Alan Garcia: 24.96%

Source: ONPE

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

52.69% of Votes Counted in Peru

2006-04-10T08:36:00.000+01:00

With 52.69% of the votes counted, Humala still leads the Peruvian elections. Lourdes Flores is still in second place and Garcia still in third. The difference between the first and the third is less than two points, so things are not definite yet and will change as more votes are counted. So far, the results are as follows:

Ollanta Humala (Union Por el Peru): 24.675%
Lourdes Flores (Unidad Nacional): 23.361%
Alan Garcia (Partido Aprista Peruano): 22.716%

Source: ONPE

So far results indicate that Humala and Flores would be the ones going to the second round.

Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit discusses electoral geography and wonders whether results so far may be reflecting a "geography effect":

Peru is kind of funny electorally, and geography matters there - itÂs basically Lima, the north and the south. The north is copper country and they mostly vote free markets for exports. The south is Indian country and they vote for the Evo-Morales left. Lima, home of Hernando de Soto, tends to be pro-free market. So if this tally came from the south, no big deal, the numbers will likely show reason in the end. But if this is Lima being counted, thereÂs a problem. A big one. Peru may well have a choice between a leftist with a bad record and a superleftist who is likely to hop into bed with Hugo Chavez.

(This comment refers to a point, earlier during the count, when Ollanta was first and Garcia second). Read this post here.

The blog Peru 2006, from the Political Sciences department at the British Columbia University in Canada has also important and valuable news. In one post referring to Transparencia's exit polls, Peru2006 shows that the estimated result is expected to be, depending on the estimation technique, either

Ollanta Humala: 29.85%
Lourdes Flores: 24.42%
Alan Garcia: 24.27%

or

Ollanta Humala: 30.32%
Lourdes Flores: 23.50%
Alan Garcia: 24.20%

This means that Ollanta Humala is expected to take part on the second round, and that results will only give us the second name. If estimation technique N. 2 is right, then Peru will have to choose between the candidates that Mora y Leon describes as "a leftist with a bad record and a superleftist who is likely to hop into bed with Hugo Chavez".

The margin of error of Transparencia in the past has been within 0.1% and 0.2% of the actual results. According to the post, the methodology used by Transparencia is inputting data until results become stable.

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

A Quote Before the Elections

2006-04-08T10:15:00.000+01:00

One day before elections take place in Peru, read this Humala quote from earlier this week:

"No candidate who represents continuity, including Mr. Alan Garcia, will stay a whole year if he does not attend to the social demands of the population".

Threatening.

Read more Humala quotes here.

Peru, Peru elections,Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

The BBC on Latin America: Argentina

2006-04-07T09:48:00.000+01:00

Yesterday's BBC report was on Argentina. The report focused on Argentinian cinema and not on politics.

Bolivia, Cinema,

The BBC on Latin America: Bolivia

2006-04-06T10:05:00.000+01:00

Yesterday's BBC Newsnight report on Latin America was on Bolivia (watch it here, 50m. long; Bolivia's bit starts at the 13th minute). So far, this was the most informed of the bunch. While it did not give a comprehensive view of Evo's threat to democracy, Venezuela's interference or even the regional conflict, it was on the mark when it showed poverty as the root of the political vacuum that allowed Evo to gain power. Paul Mason also mentions that Bolivian political institutions are strong. I wonder what happened in the last five years, then...

The country's profile was interspersed with bits of an interview with Morales. In this interview, Morales talked about what you would expect: an international conspiracy against his government, for which there is no evidence as of now, the 'neoliberal' state tying his hands, race issues and, of course, the Constituent Assembly (CA). Interestingly enough, Evo was the first to admit that the CA is designed to give his administration more power. He uses a dangerous, hate-inducing rhetoric to make his point. Read the interview from where Morales' bit were obtained here (in Spanish). Reading the rest of the interview, where Morales says that the CA will have unlimited power, makes one wonder exactly when this interview took place. An article on BBC regarding this interview (in English).

Other interesting bit was an interview with Abram Delgado, a little-known representant of one of El Alto's social organizations. He said that El Alto didn't really care whether the president was Morales, that after the grace period (one or two years) they would bring him down if they perceived him as inefficient or not maintaning his electoral promises.

On the downside, the portrait of Santa Cruz was somewhat inaccurate. Santa Cruz was shown as a predominantly white region, where all of Bolivia's energetic resources could be found. It is important to remember that Santa Cruz is more than the city, for starters. In the Santa Cruz department, there is also widespread poverty and, racially speaking, whites are still the minority, regardless of what the former Miss Bolivia may have said. Also, one of the most important points regarding Santa Cruz's economic performance, as opposed to that of La Paz, is climate. Santa Cruz's soil is much more fertile and agriculture-friendly than the Altiplano. Regarding energetic resources, Santa Cruz does not have all of Bolivia's reserves. In fact, Tarija is becoming an increasingly important energetic hub. Some rumours even point to Northern La Paz as an oil-rich region.

I was also dissapointed not to hear more on the CA battle. Seeing how Evo is Chavez's pupil and how he said that he wants to gain power through it, I think that the repoert should have discussed it in more detail.

Paul Mason's blog from Bolivia can be found here.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

The BBC on Latin America: China's Influence

2006-04-05T10:44:00.000+01:00

The special coverage of Latin America went on last night. The topic this time was the growing influence of China in Latin America -although the report only covered China's influence in Peru and Brazil. This report, kept the simplistic views and, perhaps more importantly for a newsagency, reported old news. Read, for example, this months-old article on Brazil and China. The honeymoon has ended and Brazilian producers are starting to see China as a threat, as well. Please mind this article was written in August 2005.

The report shows a Latin America that is happy to receive the attention of anybody other than the US. The US is shown once again as the bad guy, with the Monroe Doctrine taking a front seat in the analysis. Funnily enough, there is no mention of Mexico's President Vicente Fox rallying NAFTA against the Asian threat.

If you didn't catch it, you didn't miss much. On the upside, reporter Gavin Essler seems to be having a great time in Peru.

Brazil, Peru, China, BBC

Constituent Assembly Candidate Lists (Update 1)

2006-04-05T10:10:00.000+01:00

Political parties and citizen groups registered yesterday for the Constituent Assembly (CA). There are 10 groups running towards this election at national level: MAS, Podemos, UN, MNR, MIR, UCS, MBL, CN, Muspa and Movimiento Ayra.

The first four fronts are the only ones that have parliamentary representation and run -with different levels of success- in the December elections.
A second group would be comprised of older political parties that, because internal problems and disintegration, did not run in December. These are Jaime Paz Zamora's MIR (Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria), Fernandez's UCS (Union Civica Solidaridad), and MIR split cell MBL (Movimiento Bolivia Libre). As I understand, MBL has colluded with MAS in Cochabamba, so that MAS can have the three constituents. Other old political party in the run, though not at national level, is Tuto Quiroga's former party, ADN. According to the National Electoral Court, ADN is presenting candidates in all departments except Beni, Cochabamba, Pando and Santa Cruz. In those departments, ADN is running with different alliances.
The last group, comprised by CN (Concertacion Nacional), Muspa (Movimiento de Unidad Social PatriÃ³tica) and Moviemiento Ayra, we have the newbies and I have not been able to find much information on them.

Among those running for places in the CA, we have UN's founder Doria Medina, ex-president of the Senate Vaca Diez, as well asmilitariess, artists and periodists. Quiroga, Mesa and Rodriguez Veltze are not running with any front.

Since the registration, MAS has suffered several complaints. CIDOB (the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples in Bolivia) has, for example, expressed their dissatisfaction because MAS did not take into account their candidates in all agreed electoral districts. The National Council of Ayllus and Marcas of the Qollasuyo, the Sindicated Federation of Peasant Workers of La Paz, the Santa Cruz Ethnic Peoples Coordinator and the Bolivian Confederation of Disabled Persons expressed similar complaints.

Update 1: According to today's La Razon, there are 12, not 10, fronts running for the CA at national level. From these, 9 are political parties, 2 are citizen's groups and 1 is an alliance of different groups (Podemos). Moreover, there are also other 13 groups running only at regional level. The list of contenders, by departments is as follows (taken from La Razon):

LA PAZ

• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Asociación Social Patriótica (ASP)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

SANTA CRUZ

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Autonomía Social Integradora (ASI)
–Autonomía Para Bolivia (APB)
–Movimiento de Acción Ciudadana (Maca)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)
* Alianza 3-MNR (A3-MNR)
* Alianza Andrés Ibáñez (ADN, MIR y UCS)

COCHABAMBA

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Convergencia Democrática Ciudadana (CDC)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

POTOSÍ

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Movimiento Originario Popular (MOP)
–Alianza Social (AS)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

CHUQUISACA

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

ORURO

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (MUSPA)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Movimiento San Felipe de Austria (MSFA)
–Movimiento Autónomo Regional (MAR)
–Alianza de Bases (Alba)
–Movimiento de Integración Boliviana (Mibol)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

TARIJA

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

BENI

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos-ADN)

PANDO

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos-ADN)

• PARTIDO POLÍTICO
– AGRUPACIÓN CIUDADANA
* ALIANZA

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Constituent Assembly

Interview with Ollanta Humala

2006-04-05T09:26:00.000+01:00

Argentina's newspaper Pagina/12 has published an interview with candidate Ollanta Humala. It is interesting to note that while Humala speaks far better than your average populist, Chavez-would-be candidate, the ideas still remain. Specially enlightening is his answer about a potential Lourdes Flores government. "I believe it would be very difficult that Lourdes Flores gets to finish a year in power", he says. His role then would be in the "democratic opposition", he adds. Among other familiar points, he wants to revise the contracts of energy companies, industrialize coca and nationalize natural resources.

It is also interesting to note that Humala does not consider himself as being either leftist or rightist. The lack of a proposal beyond the abovementioned points and a -you probably guessed by now- Constituent Assembly may be the cause.

Not surprisingly, he denies abuses against human rights and intentions of becoming an authoritarian ruler.

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

The BBC on Latin America: Peru and Venezuela

2006-04-04T10:52:00.000+01:00

Yesterday, the BBC started a series of reports about what they call "one of the world's most under-reported big stories". They are referring to Latin Ameica's shift to the left.
Yesterday's report was about the forthcoming Peruvian elections -read Ollanta Humala- and Chavez. You can see the report here (about 1hr. long).

However, I must say I was dissapointed with the report. The report's hypothesis is very simplistic: the root of the current political situation in Latin America is the US's war on terrorism. Because of the war on terrorism, the US has neglected its backyard and is about to lose it. The report goes on to say that the US has undermined more than 40 Latin American governments and, basically, is the cause of widespread poverty in the region. This view is tremendously misinformed for one of the biggest news agencies in the world.

Let's put things straight. The US has a deal of great influence in the region. And yes, there has been some intervention in the past. The report failed to say, on the other hand, that during the cold war, the US was not the only country intervening in the region and that Latin America was not the only disputed area. Does anybody remember Germany, for example?
Also, besides Puerto Rico, all countries in the region are independent, which means that their success or failure does not depend on the US. So, the current situation cannot be fully attributed to what the US does or does not do. The root of Latin America's political situation -to the extent things can be generalized- lies in the countries themselves. Widespread corruption, weak institutions, decades of interventionist and populist dictatorships/governments and lack of incentives to private investment did the trick. None of this was mentioned. This just perpetuates the view that we Latin Americans are inefficient imbeciles with a clear conscience: everything that happens is somebody else's (read: the US) fault.

Moreover, the report seemed too sensationalist, perhaps more in tone with The Sun than with what the BBC is usually associated. When Ollanta Humala was interviewed, the reporter seemed eager to hear how he hated Bush, and most of his questions were going towards the objective. Humala did not humour him and said that he was accountable towards Peruvians and not Bush. Nobody mentioned his alter ego, the one who used torture in the 1980s. Two lesser candidates to the presidential race were also interviewed, but they were still on the campaign trail and did not say anything important. When Otto Reich (Assistant US Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere 2001-2) was interviewed, it seemed like the reporter only wanted to hear laments on how the US regrets the loss of Latin America. To top things up, Chavez's profile was extremely biased and presented a favourable view of the dictator as a champion working for the poor. Only a fleeting mention of the persecution to opposition candidates could be heard. Nothing on the persecution suffered by Sumate or the electoral fraud committed in December, nothing on his new consitution, nothing on the limits imposed to the free press and the trials to periodists and nothing on the destruction of the economic apparatus.

The report is supposed to be the first in a series that will be aired during this week. Let's hope the remaining episodes have more substance. I really hope my TV license did not finance this.

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Ollanta Humala, Venezuela, Chavez, Humala, Hugo Chavez

Bolivia Weekend News: On The Rule of Law

2006-04-04T10:02:00.000+01:00

On Sunday, two noteworthy pieces of news appeared in La Razon. The first has to do with the arrest of the ex-president of the Servicio Nacional de Caminos (National Roads Service, SNC), Jose Maria Bakovic. The second has to do with the president approval ratings.

Regarding the first, Bakovic was arrested and sent to prison without charges, other than Evo Morales saying that there was corruption in the SNC and that he hoped Bakovic was sent to prison. As we know by now, Evo Morales has the custom to speak first and think later. Two examples that come to mind are those against Banana exporters and against the US, because of the bombings.

Human Rights noticed some irregularities. First, Bakovic is old enough not to be imprisoned while being tried. Even the judge in charge recognized that Bakovic would not escape during the trial if he was not imprisoned. And second, the habeas corpus writ presented by Bakovic's lawyers was denied by the judge. This second point is an extremely rare occurrence, as I understand. Obviously, the prosecution is downplaying these occurrences.

So, why was Bakovic imprisoned? Signs point to Executive interference in the Judiciary. After all, the President of the Republic has publicly expressed his wish of Bakovic going to jail before any charges against the accused are known. The opposition is, in the meanwhile, too concerned with the constituent assembly to notice. Why is the President acting in this way? The easy answer points to shameless populism. Evo wants the people to know who is in charge, and, according to the latest polls (here comes the second story), people is reacting. Indeed, the latest polls by Apoyo, Opinion y Mercado shows that Evo's approval rate is 80% in the central axis (La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz).

Evo is deemed as a threat to democracy and the rule of law in most of the Bolivian Blogosphere. However, while most people is waiting for the Constituent Assembly to take place in order for Evo to kill democracy, few are noticing that the rule of law is weaker by the day.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Opposition Disintegrating

2006-03-29T11:32:00.000+01:00

Five days before registration for the CA ends, Podemos is fighting for its survival. Podemos is the second political force in Bolivia, after Evo's MAS, and is an umbrella of nearly one hundred political groups. The organization is registered by the citizen's groups Alianza Siglo XXI (21st Century Alliance, ASXXI), which is at the centre of it all. In fact, presidential candidate Tuto Quiroga is suposed to be a member of ASXXI. Also, this means that Podemos' colours and symbols are property of ASXXI.

Well, it seems that since the December elections, Podemos has suffered several desertions, among which is ADN, the former Tuto vehicle. Now, it seems that ASXXI has had it with Quiroga and is considering parting ways. Members of ASXXI expressed their dissatisfaction with the way things were conducted. One of the reasons is that, while Podemos was supposed to be about a new beginning, it were the same old people that ended up in the decision-making posts. That led to a feeling of exclusion for the people who started ASXXI, which presumably was the cause for the resignation of a former candidate for Senator. Therefore, Podemos (ASXXI) is considering getting rid of all this political debris for the Constituent Assembly.

This would not be an easy ride for anybody. First, we have Tuto & Co., who would be left in the cold, without a party. Then, for ASXXII, which probably would end up devoid of funds. And finally, Evo would probably get more and more constituents and an extra 26 years in power.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Just a Useful Idiot? (Update 2)

2006-03-23T10:47:00.000Z

Two plastic bombs went off in downtown La Paz, both of them in hotels. There were 2 dead and 11 injured. The suspects are an American man and an Uruguayan woman.

Read more at Publius Pundit, MABB , La Ventanita and Barrio Flores (1, 2) for detailed accounts of the event. Everything indicates this will be one of the weirdest events taking place in Bolivia in a long time.

Now, I don't want to concentrate on the weirdness of the event -it seems that the American they arrested is a Wicca High Priest, had several names (one of them is Lestat, just like Ann Rice's vampire) on several IDs and a criminal record in Argentina and Uruguay. I want to concentrate on the reactions.

according to news agency EFE, Morales is blaming the US government for the American suspect. In a speech, Morales wondered whether the US was inciting terrorist activity in Bolivia and then accused 'businessmen' and 'oligarchs' of being the brains behind the attack. Their purpose would be trying to stop the Constituent Assembly (CA) from taking place (why anybody wanting to stop the CA would bomb hotels rather than government buildings is anybody's guess). Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit wonders if the American was set up and notices that during the 1970s, explosions usually preceded coups. Well, reactions to the explosions tend to agree with Mora's suspicion: In order to avoid further attacks, Evo rallied the people to start creating 'committees for the defense of the democracy' --an idea that sounds awfully similar to the Bolivarian Circles. "We don't have a choice but an organized, united and mobilized people to defend democracy" Evo said. A government official stated that the purpose of these defense committees would be to defend "democracy, the CA and the government" (emphasis added).

Moreover, during a press conference, the suspect wanted to make an statement but a General didn't allow it (here). Why didn't he allow the suspect to speak? It is also noteworthy that the suspect's wife asked for his husband to be killed.

Can it be possible that Evo has found a way of consolidating power without burning the parliament?

Update 1: Bomb suspect Lestat says in an interview that his confession was the product of torture and that the belongings that Bolivian Police attributed to him didn't actually belong to him. This would include explosives and a notebook with all of Lestat's alleged international contacts. The US has expressed concern about Evo's reaction to the bombings.

Update 2: Another interview of Lestat with La Razon. There are interesting discrepancies with the previous interview in Update 1. First, the accused does not mention anything about torture, although he makes it clear that he was set up and believes that the government may be behind the attacks. He also believes that he was arrested because he was at hand and that he will not have a fair trial under Evo's government.

Meanwhile, the US, Venezuela and other government officials have started to react to Evo's statements. The US called the business aggregate of the Bolivian embassy in the US to explain the comments and their embassy cancelled an appointment with Garcia Linera to talk about soy. Garcia Linera denies this appointment was even scheluded (here).

On other fronts, Evo has been left in the cold. First, Chavez said that these attacks were probably incited by people against the government, but that they do not have any evidence that points to the American government (here). Then, the foreign minister said that they are fully aware that they deal with an American citizen but do not agree with Evo in respect to the US government role and are waiting for investigations to take place before making statements.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Ollanta Humala in First Place: Latest Polls and Vargas Llosa's Opinion

2006-03-22T11:52:00.000Z

In the latest electoral polls in Peru, presidential candidate for Union por el Peru (UPP), Ollanta Humala, appears as the frontrunner with 31.6% of the intention of vote. In second place, Lourdes Flores, candidate for Unidad Nacional (UN) is capturing 29.1% of the intention of vote. On the other hand, it was Flores who would receive most support in the second round. She would get 41.5% of the votes as opposed to 36.6% for Humala. The poll was conducted by CPI and took place between the 15th and the 19th of March. 2127 persons from 280 electoral districts in 20 departments were consulted and the poll is expected to have a 1.86% of error. Read more here.

In a related piece of news, Peruvian writer Mario Vargas Llosa expressed his concern of Humala receiving so much support for the elections. "What is going on in our country for such a cultural, moral and political blindness to take over?", he asked. He also recognized that Peru's democracy is mediocre at best, but that it nevertheless constitutes the only chance for a better future, as opposed to demagoguery, resentment and anger.
He said

We will regret it (if Humala becomes president), as we Peruvians have done throughout our history whenever we opened our arms to dictators. (...) How is it possible that after 10 years of shame with Alberto Fujimori, where there was robbery and sacking, we want to go back to dictatorship, authoritanism, contrained press, a manipulated judiciary and the sistematic removal of human rights?.

He finished by urging Peruvians not to be amnesiac.

Is it just me, or one could have said the exact same thing of Evo, before the Bolivian elections?

Peru, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

Bolivia News Roundup: Polls and Coca

2006-03-21T11:48:00.000Z

During the last few days there has been a myriad of Bolivian news that I have not had the time to post --until now.

Polls

In an interesting poll, results indicate that Vice-President Garcia Linera has more support among the urban middle class than Evo. According to the poll, Garcia Linera has an approval rate of 54,3%, while Evo has 48,6%. Disapproval rates are 22,4% for the Vice President and 25,8% for the President. According to the article, Evo is confortable with those numbers and suggested that it was part of their (MAS') strategy. On the other hand, in February we posted news on alleged internal conflict in the current administration. The reason was precisely Garcia Linera's popularity, which caused a feeling of abbandonment in MAS' Old Guard. If there was some substance after those reports --it was denied by the govenrment, but then again, this is not something they would freely admit--, this poll is not going to fare well with them and may possibly deepen the conflict. The poll was conducted with a sample of 800 persons in La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz.

Another poll in Los Tiempos shows that Spaniards consider Bolivia the worst country to invest in. This is directly related to the arrest of Repsol's representatives in Bolivia. They were later released on bail, but was apparently enough to give Bolivia a bad image. Repsol is accussed of the government of smuggling gas out of the country. So far, the government has not presented any evidence. The next country in the list of worst places to invest is --surprise, surprise-- Venezuela. Am I the only one noticing a pattern here?

Coca

Sunday's edition of La Razon had an special report on coca. According to this article, there is no scientific proof that coca has any nutrtional value at all. Also, the article reports that the Foreign Minister is fully aware of this fact (interestingly, this did not stop him of suggesting feeding schoolchildren with it (here) on grounds of its nutritional value). Now, according to the article, the Latin American Centre for Scientific Research (CELIN) found that

after several tests to orine samples from consumers of coca in form of herbal tea, acullico (coca chewing) and cocaine, it was evident that all had similar quantities of benzoilecgonina, which is the drug's (cocaine) metabolite.

Coca is cocaine, it seems.

In addition, Peru's Centre of Information and Education for the Prevention of Substance Abuse (CEDRO), after a study of their own, concluded that coca has no nutritional value whatsoever and that it should not be recommended as a dietary supplement.

Evo's govenrment replied through Silvia Rivera, the government's assessor for coca issues, saying that none of those studies are valid, as they are hiding other interests behind. Thus, the second article in the report shows the arguments that are used by coca proponents. The first one is "Culture and Sovereignity". This argument will probably not be very convincing, since Bolivia can legally grow and consume a limited amount on cultural grounds. It is the excedent, that goes into cocaine, that is the issue. The second argument is "Nutrition". However, as we have seen, coca has been scientifically proven not to be nutritional. The third argument is "Health". Mrs. Rivera argues that she has seen with her own eyes how coca helps people suffering from diabetes, headaches, stomach pain and even AIDS --yes, AIDS. Mrs. Rivera's testimony does not count as scientific evidence, though. The final argument is the "Social Role" it has for indigenous communities. Again, nobody is prohibiting the traditional use of coca in Bolivia. This argument is just argument 1 revisited. These arguments, however, were not necessary: Mrs. Rivera, you had me at "hidden interests".

The question here is why the UN should take coca out of the list of prohibited items for cultural grounds, if the the only country that has a cultural use for coca already allows its legal consumption on tradition grounds.

Read why Morales' coca policy is nothing but a catch-22 trap here.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Bolivia: Venezuela Revisited?

2006-03-18T12:58:00.000Z

I think that by this stage, nobody can seriously argue that Venezuela's Constituent Assembly was nothing but a sham designed to increase Chavez's hold on power. Moreover, we also know that during these harsh times, the best thing the opposition could have done is unite against the common enemy rather than fight among themselves. The lack of coordination costed the Venezuelan opposition not just an election, but their democracy.

Well, news in Bolivia for the last couple of days seem to indicate that Bolivia is following Venezuela's footsteps in more than one way.

First, we have a president -Evo- trying to neutralize the opposition through legal means. Yesterday, he announced plans to try to cut state financing to registered political parties The argument is that this is part of the government's austerity plans (funny how Evo wants to double the minimum wage and does not think about austerity then). However, in the wake of a Constituent Assembly, this move is specifically designed to curb the opposition's chances of getting Constituents. Evo wants a clear majority in the Assembly in order to rubber stamp his hold in power (remember there are still Chavista advisors in Bolivia telling Evo what to do). The story is here.

Then, we have a weak opposition that is not able to unite. ADN has announced that they will participate on their own (rather than with Podemos) in the Elections for Constituents. Podemos has been left out in the cold and is now revising its strategy and renewing its alliances. According to this article, Podemos has to renew alliances with 80 different groups. What this means is that Podemos -the largest opposition group- will run in the Elections for Constituents with a heterogeneous (and therefore unconvincing) mass of candidates. Being such a heterogeneous mass means that even if they won enough seats, there is a risk the a group could break up from Podemos and pursue their own interests. In the end, it all just plays into Evo's wishes.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

The best advice Evo ever got ...

2006-03-16T13:07:00.000Z

came from Uribe, who told Evo to start negotiating an FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with the US. Today, Evo answered: There is no chance whatsoever of him negotiating a FTA.

The roots of the news deal with Colombia's own FTA with the US. The US and Colombia agreed a Free Trade Agreement, which would allow Colombia to buy cheap soy from the US. Before the FTA, Colombia was the biggest market for Bolivian soy, as Bolivia was able to take advantage of the Andean Community's protective barriers. With these barriers in place, Bolivia was able to sell huge amounts of soy to Colombia at a cheaper price than its competitors. Obviously, with an FTA, American soy no longer has to pay tariffs to enter into Colombia and Bolivian producers will almost surely lose their market. The answer? Seeing how things work in Bolivia, nobody thought of trying to produce soy more efficiently and competitively; efforts went to try to stop Colombia from gaining the benefits Free Trade would create.

Evo asked Uribe to keep on buying Bolivian soy (read it here). Uribe, who is probably the only thinking president in the Andean Community, told Evo that the deal was closed and that it would benefit his country. He also suggested that he should do the same and bring the same benefits to Bolivians.

Evo, however, doesn't want to know about FTAs (read it here). In yet anoher case of the government giving mixed signals, Evo said that he would never ever negotiatie a Free Trade Agreement, just one day after Vice President Garcia Linera spoke of concentrating efforts on it. On the other hand, he spoke of an Agreement of Trade of the People (Tratado de Comercio de los Pueblos, or TCP).

Now, nobody knows much about what the difference betweem the FTA and the TCP are. Evo is saying that a TCP would favour SMEs (small and medium enterprises), but it just sounds as a propaganda tool: In the end, Evo may be negotiating an FTA, but selling the Bolivian people the idea that he negotiated something completely different.

Update: Evo stated the importance of maintaining good relations with the US and has agreed to start talking about soy with both the US and Colombia. He is still talking in TCP rather than FTA terms, though. Read it here.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Maria Corina Machado Interview

2006-03-08T09:26:00.000Z

The trial for Maria Corina Machado started a few days ago. She, of course, is a monster and, let's get this out of the way, she is guilty. She did receive the incredible amount of $31,000 from the US (I wonder how much Evo and Humala got from Chavez). She did try to improve the already weakened democratic institutions. She did act in accordance to a constitution designed to oppress. For those crimes against Venezuela and humanity at large, she must be tried. She's a traitor.

Read an interesting interview here. The interview dates from Monday, the same day the trial was set to start. Among other things, she notes the intimidation mechanisms used by Chavez and his thugs to get their way. It is good to know she knows her stuff. She also notes that, while Chavez has gotten $20 billion out of an impoverished Venezuela, she is being tried for doing something that is not punishable by law -namely receiving international cooperation.

The hopes of a nation lie with Maria.

Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez, Maria Corina Machado, Sumate

Nobel Peace Prize comes with responsability, Mr. Perez Esquivel

2006-02-28T10:58:00.000Z

In another interesting article in CADAL, Cuban Economist and Periodist Oscar Espinosa Chepe unmasks the Nobel Laureate as a two-faced activist. Read the following paragraph (in Spanish) to see Espinosa's point.

A diferencia de Carter, Usted ha visitado muchas veces Cuba, y como hemos visto por nuestra televisión se ha alojado en hoteles lujosos, donde a los cubanos no se nos permite la estancia. Usted ha sido testigo del apartheid existente en nuestro país, sin que nunca se haya atrevido a denunciar tan bochornoso estado de cosas. No se ha interesado por conocer la situación de la población, la falta de libertad imperante y la continuada violación de los derechos humanos. Por el contrario, en todos sus planteamientos se observa una completa sumisión al totalitarismo, soslayando su alta responsabilidad ante el mundo en su condición de Premio Nóbel de la Paz.

I wonder how is it possible for a regime known for its brutality keep on getting the support of allegedly intelligent and concerned people. Maybe it's because of the fact that too many people are so concerned with seeing GWB/the US fail, that they don't care how this is achieved. One clear example is the civil war in Iraq. So many anti-war bloggers just want to see the US/UK humiliated, that they actually are welcoming these horrible events.

In this well-written letter, Espinosa also notes that Perez Esquivel is quick to denounce Guantanamo and the death penalty in the US, while at the same time show the most expressive of silences when it comes to Cuba's gulags or fire squads.

Mr Perez Esquivel, that prize you hold comes with a certain responsibility, you know?

For a good, intelligent open letter, go here.

Cuba, Fidel,, Fidel Castro

Interesting Article

2006-02-27T10:36:00.000Z

In this article, López Göttig notes the reigning hipocrisy in Fidel Castro's newsragg Granma. This hardly comes as news: In order to survive its lack of coherence, this regime has usually turned to censorship, missinformation and persecution.

The interesting thing about the article, though, is that it notes that Fidel's regime has become so anachronistic that its points of reference are now other dictatorships that once were considered antagonistic. The case in point is Iran.

If you want, you can complement the read with this report (pdf file) on free press indicators for Latin America. Any guesses as to which country is the only one in the region that prohibits this freedom by law?

Cuba, Fidel, Granma

More on Evo's Double Standards

2006-02-23T13:56:00.000Z

Evo has just demanded social groups in Bolivia not to be involved in strikes and road blockades. He pointed out that it is not the way. Please bear in mind that this comes from the guy who has paralized Bolivia on several ocassions in the last few years and has used fear tactics to win the election.

The article from La Prensa, reads:

El presidente Evo Morales demandó que los movimientos sociales no realicen paros ni huelgas. “No es el camino”, aseguró al referirse a que el incremeto salarial del siete por ciento destinado al magisterio no es negociable.

Somehow, talking about Evo's double standards reminds me of yesterday's news, which showed that Evo's plan against corruption is nepotism (here).

Each time I read the newspaper I get more alarmed of this guy's shamelessness.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Technical Problems

2006-02-23T11:43:00.000Z

It seems my site feeds are not working. I tried using the Atom and RSS feeds to no avail. On the other hand, the direct feeds for My Yahoo!, Google Reader and Bloglines still can handle the feeds. I hope that My AOL and solo-sub feeds are working as well.

I will try to solve the situation as soon as possible, although I have no idea what is going on. I do not know if it is a Blogger thing or not, but noticed the same problem with "The Latin Americanist". Please contact me if you know what may be going on.

Really sorry.

Great New Bolivian Blog!

2006-02-22T13:49:00.001Z

Diego Escobari has started a great new blog called Viva Bolivia! and his inaugural post shows razor sharp insights into Bolivian economics. As an economics doctoral student, it seems that Diego is also a bit worried about the course of economic policy under Evo. It is must-read material for anybody interested in Bolivia.

Diego, we can't wait for your next post!

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

February 2006: International Month of Offended Obscurantist Religions

2006-02-22T10:42:00.000Z

Of course, as of now, there is not a single soul in this world who has not heard about the riots and deaths caused in protests on the publication of cartoons depicting Mohammed. This, however, has not been the only religion-fueled attack to free speech.

First, we also have Catholics in New Zealand urging to boycott an episode of South Park. In the episode, called Bloody Mary, a bleeding statue of the Virgin Mary plays a fundamental role. For those of you familiar to South Park humor, it is enough to say that the statue is not crying blood and it is not because of our sins.

Then, Hindus expressed deep offense about a French film, Les Bronzes 3 - Amis pour la vie. I have not seen the film, but it seems that it shows Goddes Durga carrying alcohol. According to the BBC article, the film is supposed to be a comedy, just like English Carry On films.

Finally, a historian has been jailed for 3 years in Austria for denying the Holocaust. This denial is deeply offensive to Jews. It seems that denying the Holocaust is punishable by law in 10 European countries. Read more here.

Of course there are some differences in regard to the method of these protests. Last time I saw something about the Muhammad cartoons, 10 persons were killed in Pakistan and 18 in Nigeria. Embassies were burnt and diplomatic relations strained. No such thing happened with either South Park or Bronzes 3. New Zealand is not burning the American embassy and has not called for the death of Trey Parker or Matt Stone. Also, neither the director nor the actor of Les Bronzes 3 has been jailed. The consequences, however, are the same for all: Self-censorship.

Now, it also seems that there huge double standards in place, here in Europe. When the protests for the cartoons started, it just prompted more newspapers to print them and allege free speech. When the historian was jailed, everybody just looked the other way, without even mentioning the right we have of say whatever we want, however stupid it may be. The Times is the only exception I am aware of. They have been encouraging a debate, which is always healthy. Kudos for them.

Denying the Holocaust is plain stupid, as we know it did happen. As a historian, the guy would probably starve. We have the testimony of survivors and concentration camps still standing, for everybody to see what happened there. So, I am not defending what the historian said. But I am defending his right to say so (remember Voltaire). In this day and age, I would suppose that we had enough evidence to show him wrong and prove his claims ludicrous without turning to medieval measures.

If supposedly advanced democracies start jailing people for saying things they do not like, are they really democracies? 'Fraid not. What guarantee we do have that we will not be jailed for saying other things? None. If we persecute people for saying what they feel like saying, how long will it be until we start burning books and people again?

It seems that we live in an age where obscurantism is taking all over again. Self-censorship is not free speech.

Free Speech, Europe, Irving, Muslim Cartoons

And Now, For Something Completely Different

2006-02-21T11:21:00.000Z

Yesterday evening, I saw Monty Python's excellent movie Life of Brian for the first time since I started blogging and could not help noticing how perfectly it depicts the stupidity of current events in Bolivia.

The movie deals with the life of Brian Cohen, also known as Brian of Nazareth or Brian that is called Brian, a person born in the same day, and right down the street, as Jesus Christ. When it was released, it was the subject of a heated controversy because of its alleged blasphemy and not one, but three different religious denominations expressed their disgust with this movie: Christians, Jews and (Palestinian) Muslims. So, you know there must be something right with it.

Indeed, this is same movie that was voted as the greatest comedy of all time by both UK's Total Film magazine in 2000 and Channel 4 in 2005. It is also ranked 136 in the IMDB top 250 and 85 in Empire Magazine top 201.

On the surface, Life of Brian is a cheaply-produced farce of Biblical epics, but underneath, a much more complex and humanistic portrait emerges. This movie offends because it dares to question. And, most important, it does not question religion, but (religious) fanatism and intolerance. It also shows the idiocy of political interest groups more concerned in passing resolutions than actually doing what they are supposed to be doing -COB, anyone? But things do not stop there, as the movie has something for oppresive systems and catch-22 justice systems -remember the stoning scene- too.

Thus, inspired by the Pythons, I have decided to write Life of Evo. Life of Evo will be an account of Bolivian politics tied to specific scenes in Life of Brian and will, hopefully, show the risible state of affairs that led to the election of the would-be authoritarian politician and his intent to destroy Bolivian democracy.

I will write a chapter of Life of Evo every weekend, for your reading pleasure. So, expect for this weekend Life of Evo, Chapter 1: Birth of Evo.

In the meanwhile, there is one thing I can assure you about Evo: He's not the Messiah. He's a very naughty boy!

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Monty Python, Life of Brian

Bolivian Weekend News: The Unbelievable and the Vendetta

2006-02-20T12:22:00.000Z

The Unbelievable

In yesterday's edition of La Prensa, an interview with the chancellor reveals the shameful state of the current government. The interviewer notices that the Bolivian foreign policy supremo is just starting to find out why Bolivia and Chile have poor relations since 1879. The article notes that

David Choquehuanca is a diferent guy from his predecessors who lead Bolivia's international relations until January 22nd [sic]. He speaks aymara and not English, does not finish reading books and is just starting to find out why Bolivia and Chile have a conflict since 1879.(Emphasis added)

If the chancellor does not know the root of the conflict, what can we make of MAS politics so far? Take the gas war, for example, when a president was ousted because MAS staged massive protests in order avoid gas being exported through Chile, without having any clues as to why there was a conflict with Chile in the first place. One can only hope that the chancellor will soon start to find out that Fidel Castro is not that committed to democracy, as some in the administration believe.

But this is just the beginning. Other things one can realize by reading this interview alone is the lack of cohesion in the administration. When the interviewer asks him if it was a mistake to say that the most important task of the new ambassador to the USA would be to seek the extradition of Sanchez de Lozada, he replies that because of the whippala (the indigenous flag), there would not be priorities so that all tasks are equally important (what he meant by that is beyond my understanding). But then, when the reporter reminded him that Evo himself said that, the chancellor bluntly replied, "What did he say?". Perhaps events like this prompted the MAS administration to start curbing the access of periodists to the palace, effectively affecting the freedom of press.

And finally, in the midst of the Battle for the Constituent Assembly, the chancellor admitted that they are planning a 26-year government plan. In the same sentence, strangely, he added "Contrary to other plans and leftist thinking, we do not speak of living better; all development plans speak of living better, we don't".

If somebody can understand what he was trying to say, please take a minute and explain it to the rest of us.

The Vendetta

According to one editorial comment, Evo's comment on the banana exporters was just a vendetta against anybody in the Chapare who dared to follow the strategies of alternative development and stop growing coca. Manfredo Kempff also notes that it is difficult to expect something else if the president himself is the representant of the Coca Growers.

Cayetano Llobet, on the other hand, notes that this comment arose from the need of the president to create enemies against his administration and quoted J. Freund -there are no possibilities of doing politics without enemies. He also notes that it is unconstitutional for the president to be the leader of an interest group. One more reason for an Assembly with unlimited power.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Constituent Assembly Update

2006-02-16T20:33:00.000Z

In a post on Tuesday, I stated that MAS may have spoken too soon about their intentions regarding the Constituent Assembly. Yesterday's reactions, which seem to confirm this statement, are all over the news: three departments, maybe four, stated that they will not participate in a MAS-dominated constituent assembly. The departments in question are Pando, Beni and Tarija, and Chuquisaca may be joining them. Moreover, today, La Razon reports that only two regions -La Paz and Potosi- support Evo's plans for the Assembly. It is interesting to note that even Cochabamba, MAS' stronghold, would rather go for an egalitarian Assembly.

Evo, on the other hand, has been playing the wrong game. So far, he believes that he can just bully the opposition into complying with his wishes, but that has only united them. So, we see that while we had 3 regions threatening with not going to the Assembly yesterday, today we have 7 (of 9) regions opposing Evo's plans. Moreover, comments like the one against banana exporters do not serve any other purpose than creating more and more enemies to his administration. What was the purpose of that comment, really? Why does Evo want to avoid a $500 million/year business? In the end, when we take into account that internal conflict may be rife in his administration (here), signs point to Cayetano Llobet's prediction hitting the bull's-eye: the MAS administration will probably end up having more in common with the UDP administration (1982-1985) than with Chavez's.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Evo going crazy?

2006-02-16T12:04:00.000Z

Is it just me, or accusing the banana producers of drug trafficking (here), while allowing each member of the coca federation to grow one cato (1600 square meters) of the illegal crop (here) is nothing but a savage hipocrisy?

ps: more on the Constituent Assembly later.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

MAS' Intentions and Their First Purge

2006-02-14T20:54:00.000Z

I guess today's news came as no surprise to anybody: MAS admitted that their plan is to get the hegemony in the Constituent Assembly, and because of that, they will seek to approve their proposed Call for Constituent Assembly Law. They clearly stated that they want to reform Bolivia at all levels, including the name, if they deem necessary (in other words, start making way for the Bolivarian, Tawantinsuyan or Originary Republic of Bolivia).

To reach their objective, they have also opened a new front against the CNE (Corte Nacional Electoral). What MAS wants to do here is force the current officials to resign. They have found two ways to achieve this objective: A no-confidence vote or a trial against CNE officials. Their preferred way is the first one, as the other would take longer than they are willing to make. Read the story here.

Now, it seems to me that MAS officials may have spoken too soon. The first piece of news, as I stated, probably did not surprise anybody. On the other hand, it probably did raise the alert levels at Podemos, UN and MNR. The reason is simple: until now, the constituent assembly was contemplated by all fronts and all the observations the opposition had had to do with the possibility of MAS extending its mandate a la Chavez. However, one could give them the benefit of doubt: perhaps they were really interested in changing the superstructure. So, what this statement means is that there is no room for doubt anymore: MAS will try to extend their mandate and design the new Constitution according to Evo's wishes (otherwise, they would be more concerned in having fair represenation rather than hegemony). Hopefully, this piece of news will serve as a wake-up call for the opposition to start working together. Remember that MAS alone can not get the necessary votes to approve their Law, they need 21 more votes. That means that neither UN or MNR is good for them, so they will have to lure Podemos. If Quiroga still has any political ambitions, this will not be the easiest of tasks.

The second piece of news is more worrying, though. By seeking the resignation of the electoral body in Bolivia, MAS is effectively purging the system of any elements they consider antagonistic to their interests. With the appointment of favourable elements in the Electoral Court, MAS will have room not only for fraud, but for the provision of computerized voting systems that will allow them to separate voters according to their preferences, as in Venezuela (probably Chavez will be keen to give Evo "fraternal" aid in this respect).

Evo is starting to unleash all his power against Bolivian democracy.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

More on the Constituent Assembly

2006-02-10T23:07:00.000Z

Regarding the Constituent Assembly, Doria Medina's UN is the first opposition group to present a different law for the call of constituent assembly members. The move is intended to put a halt to Evo's notion of an assembly with 'unlimited power' that may end up extending his mandate. Thus, UN proposes that the new constitution be approved by absolute majority and, in case of modifying the length of the mandate and the clause on the reelection of officials, to be applied from the next constitutional period onwards. PODEMOS coincided with this vision and their senator Vasquez Villamor said that any changes should look into the future and should not favor any parties trying to take advantage in the short run. In a more radical tone, MNR MP Justiniano proposed that the new Constitution should define that any person should be allowed to be president only once, thus avoiding the reelection of elected officials and the candidacy of ex-presidents. Read it here.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Chavez Turns his Anger Against the UK

2006-02-09T11:22:00.000Z

Hugo Chavez kicked his presidential campaign recently, and now that he needs to take the attention away from his authoritarian regime and try to unite the people against outside threats, he turned against Tony Blair, the BBC reports here.

Yesterday, a labour MP asked Blair if the UK should take a "right-wing US agenda" towards Venezuela, to which the Prime Minister replied "It is rather important that the government of Venezuela realise that if they want to be respected members of the international community they should abide by the rules of the international community." He also added "I also have to say with the greatest respect to the president of Venezuela that when he forms an alliance with Cuba I would prefer to see Cuba a proper functioning democracy."

Chavez responded by calling Mr. Blair a "pawn of imperialism, trying now to attack us from Europe", and "the main ally of Hitler". He then went on and on, saying that Blair does not have any moral right to say what he did, being an ally of Mr. Danger [GW Bush] in the Iraq war.

I wonder how Chavez would react if Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten were to publish cartoons about him.

Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

The Three Options for the Call for Constituent Assembly Law

2006-02-09T10:43:00.000Z

The three different options from which Bolivian MPs are choosing how the members of the constituent assebly will be elected are:

Evo Morales (MAS) proposal: Three members are chosen from each electoral district. Two of them come from the majority party and the third one comes from the runner-up, unless the majority party wins with 50% or more votes, in which case all three members come from the majority party. Members should not be accountable to anybody and should also have unlimited powers to redesign the institutional framework from scratch.

This plan has been criticized from several fronts, including MAS MPs who believe that the current constitution should be ammended and not discarded (read it here). Several other groups, among which we have entrepreneur, civic and indigenous groups, also echoed these concerns (here) and went further into asking guarantees against potential breaches to the current institutional framework. Smaller departments have also raised concerns, arguing that their interests could not be protected if this project is approved.

CECAC (The Parliament's Special Comission for the Constituent Assembly): Two members are elected from each electoral district, summing up 136 constituents. Two more members are elected for each department (making a total 18) and 26 more members will come from special indigenous districts, giving a total of 180 members for the assembly. The members coming from the departments and electoral districts would be elected by voting and the members coming from indigenous districts would be chosen according to customs and traditions.

As of yet, I have not been aware of any reactions to this proposal.

Beni's Parliamentary Brigade: Benis proposes 116 members to the assembly. Each department would chose 10 representatives (90) and 26 would come from the indigenous districts. Members from the departments would simply be the 10 candidates who obtain the most votes. Indigenous districts are free to choose their representatives by customs and traditions.

The objective of this proposal is to give all regions equal representation.

No reactions to this proposal either.

(Read the last two proposals here)

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Battle for the Constituent Assembly Begins

2006-02-07T11:12:00.000Z

Today, President Evo Morales will send his Call for Constituent Assembly Law to the parliament. As stated in a previous post, the law proposes the election of three Constituent Members for every zone. Two of them would go for the winner and the third one for the second place, unless the winner gets more than 50% of the vote, in which case all three members from that zone would come from the winner.

Evo is clearly hoping to repeat his December success with this vote, as MAS won 44 of 70 electoral zones in the general elections. Without taking into account zones where he may win with more than 50%, this law would translate in at least 88 (of 210) members going for MAS. Some estimates, taking the 50% rule into account, give Morales 108 members.

Moreover, yesterday Evo warned to the heads of social movements about the risk of movilizations taking place if this law is not approved by the end of the month, while Garcia Linera called them to protect the president and change (read it here).

In fact, Evo has already started rallying his supporters by talking publicly about alleged conspiracies from the energy sector. According to Los Tiempos, Morales talked with a peasants' association about the transnationals conspiring against him and the association's protection being paramount for the government's well-being. Garcia Linera, using the twisted logic of authoritarian governments, linked the US with the transnational conspiracy and the constituent assembly: "[This time], the movilizations will not go against the president, but to protect him, to defend nationalization, to defend us from the Gringos, to defend the Constituent Assembly."

With this speech, Evo and Garcia Linera have set their charge against Bolivian democracy in motion. But still more worrying is the fact that after that inflamatory speech, Morales went to the Military and asked them directly to protect the Constituent Assembly and hidrocarbon nationalization, for which tasks he promised to revitalize the institution. "A country is strong when their Armed Forces are strong", he added. It is important to remember that Evo skipped three generations of officers when he appointed the military's high command. This probably served the purpose of winning loyalties among the armed forces, and here is why. Perhaps Evo learned how to act democraticly from his democratic friend Fidel Castro (read it here).

It seems that Evo is not leaving anything to chance. The pressure to accept his Law will come from all sides and I wonder how long the opposition MPs can hold against it with their "one voter, one vote" discourse. Does not look good, though.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Internal Conflict and Petty Jealousy Mar MAS Administration

2006-02-06T11:01:00.000Z

During the presidential race, it was easy to note that the fronturunner parties were not really cohesive political parties but conglomerates of interest groups. Both Podemos and MAS were boasting about having more than 40 social groups backing them. Even if they thought that that showed the extent of their reach, in reality it sent the message of them being an easy prey to interest groups.
Now, it is starting to happen in MAS. According to this article in Los Tiempos, even Evo is starting to lose his calm with all the pettiness behind curtains. The article mentions not only the delay in the approval of Evo's austerity plans, but plain jealousy towards vice-president Garcia Linera.
The article says

La Prensa even found out that there were quarrels between the vice-president, Alvaro Garcia Linera, and Morales' entourage. Most of them were generated by jealousy from old militants of MAS, because of the "excessive public appearances" of the Vice president in exterior policy matters.
According to sources, Garcia Linera was the mastermind behind Morales' advances towards the USA and Chile's Ricardo Lagos. This caused sorrow in the Executive, not because of the acts themselves, but because it was the vice-president who expressed them.

Also, the fight for positions is on. MAS deputies "demanded angrily" more power quotas, arguing that they had expensive campaign costs and, obviously, now want their investment to yield some profits. Evo answered that he could not make everybody happy.

Jealousy towards Garcia Linera may be a decisive factor in the success of MAS. In the run to the elections I read several articles stating that Garcia Linera was the brain, while Morales was only the facade. Also, Garcia Linera was critical to capture the vote of the middle classes. Old militants probably did not like it, but stayed calm as long as his presence captured the necessary votes. Now that everything is said and done, things are bound to change.
The old guard feels it is being ousted by this newcomer and now that they finally got to power, they are not going to let it go easily. So, there is a chance that they will start blocking the vicepresident in everything they can just to show him who has the power. In addition, if Morales is really planning to pull a Chavez and consolidate power through the Constituent Assembly, he needs to create a cult around his person and the last thing he needs is the vice president to steal his thunder. So, he may, in time, add his efforts to those of the old guard.
Garcia Linera, on the other hand, knows his worth and is not likely to let the old guard push him around. The confrontation against the Chancellor is the perfect example: One day, the Chancellor says one thing, five days later Garcia Linera says that what the Chancellor said will not take immediate effect and finally, the Chancellor had to change his position and accept Garcia Linera's line.
What is bound to happen, if Morales is not able to control the old guard, is that MAS could split right down the middle. The fact the Morales is not keeping his deputies happy can only add wood to the flames.

On the matter of the deputies protecting their investments, it can only mean that if they are not able to get it back legally, corruption will run uncontrolled through the parliament.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

The Beginning of the End for Bolivian Democracy? (Update 1)

2006-02-03T12:37:00.000Z

Ever since I started this blog and first posted, I referred to Evo as being harmful to democracy, and therefore, as the worst that could happen to Bolivia. Now, less than two weeks after assuming his mandate, Evo has sent the first signals of his anti-democratic tendencies. In today's La Prensa, Evo publicly announced that he will resort to popular pressure (read: marches and blockades) if the congress does not approve of his Call for Constituent Assembly Law (Ley de Convocatoría a la Asamblea Constituyente).

He also pointed out that the Constituent Assembly should have unlimited power and not be accountable to either the Legislature or the Executive (he did not mention the Judiciary), as it would write an entirely new consitution, not just reform the current one.

Finally, he made clear that the new Constitution would be the engine for reform, because "his enemies" will be quick to run to the Constitutional Court in order to neutralize his decrees (as they would be violating the current constitution) until a new constitution is in place.

What decrees Evo, who thinks of Fidel Castro as a democrat, may have in mind is anyone's guess.

Update 1: Accodring to Los Tiempos, the opposition reacted promptly by stating that Evo's intentions did not show respect for either the Constitution or the laws. UN put things in their place when their Deputy Chief stated that the constituent assembly will not be a social movement meeting, and will not be made according to MAS or Morales' wishes, but according to those of the country. "The election [of constituents] will take place with one man, one vote", he added. The reactions of Morales after the backlash are not reported.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

On Morales' Coca Policy

2006-01-31T09:34:00.000Z

On the (Bolivian) news, you will find today the reactions of Morales' speech in the Chapare, where he promised to let all peasant grow one "cato" (1.600 square meters) of coca until the European-financed study on traditional consumption is ready. In the meanwhile, he vowed to take matters to the United Nations, in order to take coca out of the list of prohibited substances. The US, the main advocate of coca eradication, pointed out they were "not aware" of the "cato" policy ( more here).

What I want to discuss now is not the political implications of the speech, but rather, the chances of success of this policy.

As I understand it, Evo wants to legalize coca in order to let peasants in the Chapare region improve their living standards through the production of this lucrative crop. Coca is indeed the most lucrative crop Bolivian farmers can hope to grow -with prices reaching several times those of legal alternatives- because of cocaine. The prices of coca are high, because coca is the raw material for cocaine, which is itself an expensive product. In other words, if cocaine did not exist, the prices of coca would be even lower than those of legal alternatives, since its demand is quite limited and inelastic.

Now, let's make a couple of assumptions, as we economists love to do: first, Morales manages to get coca out of the list of prohibited items of the UN, and second, the regional governments manage to control that the production does not go into drug trafficking.

The implication of the first assumption would translate into a boom of coca farms, not only in Bolivia, but also in Colombia, Peru and probably Ecuador. There would be a surplus of coca supply and, because no coca is going into drug trafficking (second assumption), we only have a handful of uses for it: traditional consumption, herbal tea and toothpaste. Will herbal tea and toothpaste producers be able to pay coca growers the same prices as cocaine producers? Obviously not. The reasons are simple: one, neither coca-based herbal tea nor toothpaste costs as much as cocaine, and two, there would be an excess in the supply of coca. So, prices for coca would plummet and coca growers would be as poor as before. In fact, if the government is able to curb drug trafficking effectively, they would be worse off.

So, if Evo's plan works as intended (coca becomes legal - none of it goes to drugs), it will fail, because coca growers will not be able to improve their living standards and profit from growing coca. Evo is probably working under the assumption that coca is intrinsecally valuable, but clearly, it is not.

And so we reach the (catch-22) conclusion: Evo needs drug trafficking to take place in order for his coca policy to work.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

EVOnomics - Great new blog

2006-01-31T09:17:00.000Z

Antonio, from "The Economist en su Laberinto" started a new blog, "EVOnomics", which will be dedicated to the analysis of economic policy under Evo. All signs point to this being a must-read for everybody interested in the reforms going on under Morales. In Spanish.

Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo

Evo Morales, Presidente (Update 1)

2005-12-19T12:39:00.000Z

Evo Morales has won the Bolivian elections with 50.9% of the vote, preliminary results show. Tuto Quiroga comes in second with 31,9% of the vote and a majority in the Senate. The great losers in this election have been UN, which only managed 8% of the vote and NFR, which got less than 1% of the votes after coming third (with just 0.3% less than MAS) just three years ago. MNR, on the hand, is the great survivor, with 6,7% of the vote, a Senator and 8 MPs (members of parliament). This is a great result for them considering that their last elected official (Gonzalo Sanchez) is an extremely hated figure.

Now, in the following picture, from Santa Cruz' daily El Deber we see the percentages obtained by all parties, but most interestingly, the East-West divide in the vote. In all blue regions, the winner was MAS and in all red regions, the winner was Podemos. Regional interests appear clear: The East, usually seen as a most progressive and richer region, has opted for Podemos over MAS. All the talk of nationalization and a strong state does not appear to fare well here. This, however, does not mean that MAS did not get a surprise second place in Santa Cruz, which signals that MAS' discourse better accepted in rural areas than previously thought. Further North, though, MAS did not repeat the success, as it was not even close to second in Pando and Beni.
In the West, MAS won its stronghold departments and managed to win departments that were thought to lean on Quiroga's favour, such as Potosi and Chuquisaca. Podemos, however, managed to get second places in all these regions, so that they get one senator for each Blue department.

All in all, the parliament is going to look as in the second picture, also from El Deber. The first interesting thing to notice is that Podemos, which is trailing by 20% in the general vote, has a majority in the Senate. This is due because Podemos either won or came second in all regions. MAS did not do as well in the North East, as previoulsy stated, so, no Senators for these regions. In the lower house, MAS do get half the congressmen and have a sizeable 20 MP difference with Podemos. Interestingly, even if we were to sum all centre-right parties, MAS is still the majority: Podemos (45) plus UN (10), MNR (8) and NFR (1) amount only 64 MPs. On the other side of the spectrum, MIP's only MP is probably going to be closer to MAS, giving the left a total of 66 MPs.

Now, to the third topic: prefects. According to a simulation done by Apoyo Opinion y Mercado, MAS has not won a single prefect, while Podemos has won 6 and different citizen groups the other 3 (the citizen group in Cochabamba is aligned with the now-extinct NFR and the one in Tarija with MNR), although MAS may still win in Potosi. This means that most of Morales' activities will be well chequed in the regions. Expect the prefects of Santa Cruz and Tarija to pose a great threat to MAS plans of hydrocarbon nationalization: the Santa Cruz prefect, from a citizen group called Autonomia Para Bolivia (Autonomy for Bolivia), will probably start pushing hard towards more departmental autonomy from the start. Mario Cossio should follow suit.

Update 1: It seems that Apoyo Opinion y Mercado has, once again, failed tremendously in its simulations. For a more accurate description of the prefect election, see the graph below, from El Deber. It seems that MAS is ahead in two regions -Potosi and Chuquisaca- and has won in a third one, Oruro. Also, the MAS candidate for the Tarija prefecture is disputing the result on grounds that, according to him, Mario Cossio has colluded with the CNE in order to 'depure' up to 70,000 voters, all of whom were his supporters (!).
The rest of the results are unchanged.

Bolivia

Bolivian Elections: Latest

2005-12-18T22:48:00.000Z

According to La Prensa's exit polls results, MAS is winning the election with 44,5% of the vote, followed by Podemos (34,3%) and UN (11,7%). Michiaki Nagatani is fourth with 7,2%. The rest of the parties sum less than 2% between them

Bolivia

A footnote and Sunday's election

2005-12-16T09:48:00.000Z

I was just reading a paper by Overland et al (2005) on political instability (one of the big topics in my thesis) and found a very interesting footnote that deals with how politics work in several countries, many of which are Latin American.
The paper basically develops a model on how a (endogenous) probability of political catastrophe affects growth in dictatorships.
The footnote in question says that

Barro (1996a) states: “. . . the effects of an autocracy are adverse, however, if the dictator uses his or her power to steal the nation’s wealth . . . .” Bardhan (1997) writes, “when public resources meant for building productivity-enhancing infrastructure are diverted for politicians’” private consumption . . . growth rates obviously will be adversely affected.” De Long (1997) lists a group of countries in which “. . . the average person is probably poorer in absolute terms than their counterparts back in 1965 . . . .” This group includes Mozambique, Togo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Senegal, Ghana, Zaire (now Republic of Congo), Uganda, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Peru, Nicaragua, and Jamaica. De Long attributes these countries’ steady decline to “Government by Thieves” or "kleptocracy” – situations where the leaders have “sacrificed economic development and the long-run interests of all to the short run interests of a relative few” (Ch. 21: 3).

Most people interested in Latin American politics will find this statement interesting, not least because of the inclusion of Chile -whose government is usually regarded as the most efficient in South America- among the kleptocratic regimes.
Otherwise, it is well-known that elections (at least in Argentina, Bolivia and Peru) usually choose the least-bad candidate rather than the best one. All politicians down there do have skeletons in their closets and reelection has never corrected ther ways.
In the case of Bolivia, it is easy ot single out the incentive problem faced by most politicians: Ever since Bolivians regained democracy (in 1982) not a single time voters have chosen to keep the incumbent party in office. This means that elected officials know they will be on their way out once the 5-year period has passed and instead of focusing on an efficient and transparent rule, they just try to make the most out of it so they never actually need to be reelected.
What happens then is that the kind of people going into politics in Bolivia, are neither the best prepared nor the most idealistic, but the ones who want to make a quick buck or two. Actually, in real life, some years ago a very close friend of mine once heard some guy boasting about his father's contacts with one party, meaning that he would soon be joining as a militant, get a government job, get rich and just enjoy life. It is lucky that since the guy said that, the party he wanted to join is facing extinction, but the attitude remains there. Is there a light in the end of the tunnel when this kind of people is ruling the country? As the Jose Luis Paredes case shows, things have not changed much.
Thus, once again Bolivia goes to the urns on Sunday. The optimal choice is once again unclear. WHile it is clear that Evo Morales is explicitly the worst that can happen a question remains on the competence of their competitors. As Tuco from The Economist en su Laberinto noted when Podemos' plan was first unveiled, Quiroga has been desperate to join the populist bandwagon just to catch more votes. So, other than proposing several subsidies for each and every person, Podemos' plan shines for its lack of realistic proposals. When we match this to the decision to allow all of the political debris from other parties to run under his wing, what do we really get? Simply put, nothing. Doria Medina's UN plan suffers from similar ills. It seems that the most they did was getting a high-profile Cruceno for vice-presidential candidate. Otherwise, UN has looked happy to run for third place, knowing that would mean a place in next government, whatever the results. Interestingly, as Ciao! notes, this plan seems to have backfired.

I guess the only thing left to do now is wait.

References
BARDHAN, P. (1997): "Corruption and Development: A Review of Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, 35, 1320-46.
BARRO, R. J. (1996): "Democracy and Growth," Journal Of Economic Growth, 1, 1-27.
DE LONG,J. (1997): "Slouching Towards Utopia? The Economic History of the Twentieth Century." http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/Slouch_Old.html.
OVERLAND, J., K. L. SIMONS, and M. SPAGAT (2005): "Political Instability and Growth in Dictatorships," Public Choice, 125, 445-470.

Bolivia

Good News

2005-12-08T09:33:00.000Z

Wandering once again off topic, I am glad to be the bearer of good news. The University of Manchester, where I am currently doing my PhD, has won the Times 2005 University of the year award.
The award was announced by Prime Minister Tony Blair, who said: "Manchester has impressed the whole Higher Education sector by its successful merger last year with UMIST. But what particularly impressed the judges was how, under the leadership of its vice-chancellor Alan Gilbert, Manchester's vision for the future and determination to reinvigorate itself to become one of the top research universities in the world has enthused both staff and students."
Read more here and/or here.

Best for last, though. The University of Manchester has created The Brooks World Poverty Institute, which will be a multidisciplinary research centre for the understanding of the dynamics of poverty with the aim of improving the prospects of those affected. The chair of this new institute will be no other than Nobel Laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz.
Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt Hon Gordon Brown, welcomed Stiglitz with the following words

“The University is well established as a global leader in economics with a proud history of attracting the very best and most distinguished economists, including during the 20th century, Nobel prize winners John Hicks and Sir Arthur Lewis.
“Today I am delighted that the University is welcoming its first Nobel prize winning economist of the 21 st century – Joseph Stiglitz – a groundbreaking theorist with considerable experience of applying economic theories through his extensive work for national and international government organisations.”

Read more here.
For a video link, go here.
For the centre's page at the university's site, go here.
Finally, for Stiglitz' statement, go here (opens in MSWord).

Stiglitz, Manchester

Warning: The end of freedom of the press ahead

2005-12-06T09:47:00.000Z

In today's paper, Evo Morales publicly anounces his plans to put government-controlled radio stations in all provinces in order to control how news are reported. Don't say you voted for/supported Morales because you thought it was going to be different: it's going to be as authoritarian a regime as it can possibly be. This is deeply worrying for those of us of a Libertarian persuasion

Bolivia

Update on MAS' coup threat

2005-12-05T12:48:00.000Z

Last week, I wrote on the possibility that MAS were already going for the coup. As many people and parties grew concerned, president Rodriguez started to investigate what was behind the claims, only to find Evo Morales accusing him of taking sides and making campaign for Quiroga.
What sickens me about this matter is that he was not so quick to deny Venezuelan interference, and still has to pronounce his position on Brazil's and Argentina's meddling. Yet, when the president of the country he wants to run initiates action to protect democracy, he is taking sides. Would this have happened/cuold Morales accuse Rodriguez of taking sides, if it were not because a Senator in his own party publicly talked about these plans? Of course not. It seems to me that Morales wants to boost his vote by having someone who is supposed to be neutral go against him. After all, it worked miracles last election when the US embassy took sides with MNR, no?

It is also extremely interesting noticing that the "Democracy" Center has not uttered a single word in this respect. Every reader of the center's blog is aware of its writer's biases and preferences, but you would expect an NGO called DEMOCRACY Center to at least express its concern.

Bolivia

Venezuela's elections

2005-12-05T12:25:00.000Z

Although there has been much said about fraud in the congressal election that took place in Venezuela yesterday, it seems that Chavez has done it again.

A week ago, with the withdrawal of several parties from the race because of the rigged system, many pundits started to predict the fall of Chavez. To add to this feeling of vctory, turnout was extremely low: some sites reported a 90% abstinence rate, while the official figures indicate a 75% one. This finally made clear what the majority of Venezuelans think about how democratic their president is - not that Chavez cares much, though.

In any case, there plenty to be worried about. Both the OAS and the EU watchers said the election was peaceful and without complications and it is unlikely they will comply to the opposition's wishes and denounce at the last moment the presence of fraud, even if this is the case (remember the Carter Centre). Moreover, Chavez, whose party and allies won all seats in the congress, has already referred to the opposition as "illegal parties". In his eyes, this pirric victory was in the end just a victory, as that 25% of voters gave him complete control.

We may have just witnessed the death of Venezuelan democracy.

Venezuela

214 Years Ago

2005-12-05T10:49:00.000Z

On December 5th, 1791 an incident that has been described by some as the most tragic event in mankind's art history took place: the death of Wolfgang Mozart.
Mozart died because of what is thought to be miliary fever, but that did not stop several, often romantic legends growing around it: that of the messenger in grey, who comissioned a requiem mass for Mozart's own funeral; that of freemasons killing him because of Die Zauberflöte and, obvioulsy, the one made famous in the movie Amadeus, which many filmgoers errouneously think of as an accurate biopic, that states that court composer Antonio Salieri killed him, to name a few. A friend of mine believes in the unorthodox theory that Mozart had to die, because the world could not have had Mozart and Beethoven as contemporaries.
Whatever the truth may be, 214 years ago mankind was deprived of one of history's few true geniuses.

Mozart