Do Quiroga's blunders justify voting for Morales?
However, these people are not leaning for MAS because they want Morales as president or think their policies are appropriate - no party has spoken about policies yet. The reasoning behind this surge for MAS is different: People think that if Morales is not elected president, he will be quick to take the streets and paralyze the country again. On the other hand, if he becomes president, he will soon find himself against a myriad of problems -unrealistically high expectations, excessive demands from social sectors and aid cutoffs, to name a few- and will be forced to resign. The next government, the argument follows, will be the one to bring peace to Bolivia.
There are, however, two elements missing from this reasoning -the constituent assembly and Chavez.
As we know, one of the bigger tasks for the next government is the constituent assembly. If Morales gets elected, he will try to model the Bolivian constitution on his image, much like Chavez did in Venezuela. That means that the chances of ousting Morales with mere street protests is as good as none. (I won't go into discussing other effects of a long-term Morales potential dictatorship now).
The second element, Chavez, will prove important in two respects: First, logistic support for drafting the new Bolivian constitution, and second, financial support. The first point should be clear from the above paragraph. With regard to the second point, if the WB/IMF cut off financial aid, I believe Chavez will be quick to fill the void, at least until the new Bolivian constitution is passed. He has virtually unlimited resources from PDVSA and has shown no repairs in using them for political means. Moreover, as the case of the "Energetic Ring" shows, Chavez is eager to gain energetic control of the region and being Bolivia the second largest powerhouse of South America, it would be a welcome addition to his sphere of influence.