Monday, April 10, 2006

52.69% of Votes Counted in Peru

With 52.69% of the votes counted, Humala still leads the Peruvian elections. Lourdes Flores is still in second place and Garcia still in third. The difference between the first and the third is less than two points, so things are not definite yet and will change as more votes are counted. So far, the results are as follows:

Ollanta Humala (Union Por el Peru): 24.675%
Lourdes Flores (Unidad Nacional): 23.361%
Alan Garcia (Partido Aprista Peruano): 22.716%

Source: ONPE

So far results indicate that Humala and Flores would be the ones going to the second round.

Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit discusses electoral geography and wonders whether results so far may be reflecting a "geography effect":
Peru is kind of funny electorally, and geography matters there - it’s basically Lima, the north and the south. The north is copper country and they mostly vote free markets for exports. The south is Indian country and they vote for the Evo-Morales left. Lima, home of Hernando de Soto, tends to be pro-free market. So if this tally came from the south, no big deal, the numbers will likely show reason in the end. But if this is Lima being counted, there’s a problem. A big one. Peru may well have a choice between a leftist with a bad record and a superleftist who is likely to hop into bed with Hugo Chavez.
(This comment refers to a point, earlier during the count, when Ollanta was first and Garcia second). Read this post here.

The blog Peru 2006, from the Political Sciences department at the British Columbia University in Canada has also important and valuable news. In one post referring to Transparencia's exit polls, Peru2006 shows that the estimated result is expected to be, depending on the estimation technique, either

Ollanta Humala: 29.85%
Lourdes Flores: 24.42%
Alan Garcia: 24.27%

or

Ollanta Humala: 30.32%
Lourdes Flores: 23.50%
Alan Garcia: 24.20%

This means that Ollanta Humala is expected to take part on the second round, and that results will only give us the second name. If estimation technique N. 2 is right, then Peru will have to choose between the candidates that Mora y Leon describes as "a leftist with a bad record and a superleftist who is likely to hop into bed with Hugo Chavez".

The margin of error of Transparencia in the past has been within 0.1% and 0.2% of the actual results. According to the post, the methodology used by Transparencia is inputting data until results become stable.


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