Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Peruvian Expats (Update 2)

Results with 82.6% of the votes counted show the following results:

Humala: 26.38%
Flores: 20.51%
Garcia: 21.28%

Source: ONPE

If these results hold, the second round may be contested by Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala.

There is one glimpse of hope, though, which indicates that Flores could be second. This glimpse is given by Peruvian expats. According to El Comercio, Flores is so far getting 62.2% of those emitted by Peruvians living outside Peru. The article also indicates that Peruvian expats account for 2.8% of the vote. If Flores maintains this share of expat votes, and ONPE's results hold, than she will get an advantage of 0.97% over Garcia, effectively winning the second place and going to second round (please note that I am assuming that the above-mentioned results by ONPE do not include expat vote, as only 3,8% of the expat vote has been counted).

Update 1: Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit has recent information that indicates that the expat vote is following the same pattern as the domestic vote, i.e. Humala is coming in first, with Garcia following and Flores just behind Garcia. Really sad.

Read the reaction of foreing investors here and here.

Update 2: Mora y Leon has corrected the post mentioned in Update 1. It seems that that post was the result of misreading this post. Read Mora y Leon's correction here.



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