Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Mexican Debate Resources

The Mexican presidential candidates had their last televised debate yesterday. The importance of this debate lies in that Calderon, PAN's candidate, and Lopez Obrador, PRD's candidate, are going neck-to-neck and the debate could be decisive. The themes discussed were security, governance, migration and foreign policy, federalism and regional development and state reform. Accusations between the two leading candidates were not uncommon.

The debate was also surrounded by an assassination attempt on the family of a businessman involved in a corruption scandal with Lopez Obrador. The businessman was going to show videos involving Lopez Obrador's collaborators in corruption scandals. Nobody mentioned this when security and crime were discussed.

According to EFE, the leading candidates ignored the other candidates, were involved in a war of words and basically said that they were the only ones with chances to win. Calderon said that Mexico has to choose between two projects -his, which is the sensible option and will work inside the law, and Lopez Obrador's, which is not only bad, but is also not viable.

Bloomberg focuses on the fact that Lopez Obrador was first in the polls until a series of ads compared him to Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. So, the debate was a forum for Obrador to show he is not a Chavista. On a second article, Bloomberg notes the opposed models behind Calderon and Lopez Obrador. Calderon's view is that of promoting growth with private investment and increasing competitiveness. Lopez Obrador's view is that state spending should curb poverty and inequality.

The reactions to the debate are mixed. While some analysts say that Calderon got the advantage because Lopez Obrador took too much time to answer questions and others go for Lopez Obrador, based on his self-confidence, many conclude that it was a goalless draw.

The Scotsman, however, reports that Calderon tore Lopez Obrador apart. From the article, there should be little doubt. This article confirms the Scotsman's impressions.

Finally, you can read a minute-by-minute report on the debate here, here and here (all three in Spanish).

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Blogger Camilo Pino said...

Surveys conducted by printed media say Felipe Calderón won the final presidential debate. However, these surveys come with a spin. Most media groups in Mexico tend to support Calderon’s candidacy.

I had a chance to watch the debate and didn’t see a clear winner at all. I found Calderón slightly more convincing than López Obrador, but not to the level needed to swing PRI and undecided votes. Indeed, both leading candidates did a good job. They neutralized attacks efficiently and stuck to message. I think the debate won’t make a big difference. If anything, it will reinforce already taken decisions.

Post-debate surveys published so far follow:

Reforma newspaper, Mexico’s largest circulation broadsheet, asked four hundred people who won the final presidential debate. The results of this "4.8% error margin" survey are:

-Felipe Calderón from government party PAN: 44%.
-Luis Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)from left wing PRD party: 30%
-Roberto Madrazo from PRI party: 11%.

El Economista newspaper produced a similar survey obtaining these results:
-Calderón: 66%.
-AMLO: 19%
-Madrazo: 9%

La Crónica newspaper also got Calderó leading its survey:
-Calderón: 42%.
-AMLO: 29%.

Excelsior newspaper surveyed 300 people and asked them who would they vote for after the watching the debate. The results give a slight lead to Calderón with 37% against 32 % for AMLO.

1:59 AM  
Blogger Alvaro Ruiz-Navajas said...

Thanks Camilo! Your comment has been enlightening.

7:32 AM  
Blogger Bill Scott, Sr. said...

I find it intersting to see how things work and how things are in other places in the world. Very insightful, thanks for posting.


4:28 PM  
Blogger Alvaro Ruiz-Navajas said...

Thjank you for your kind words; I'm glad I could be useful

7:56 PM  

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