Morales' TCP, Part III

Yesterday, Evo signed the TCP and ALBA with Venezuela and Cuba. Of course, he hailed this deal as the way of bringing Bolivia out of its misery, but with dignity and sovereignity. Exactly how things will improve with a trade deal with a country that bought $5000 of Bolivian production in a year, is anybody's guess.

However, the consequences of not signing a trade deal with the US will cause more harm than Evo can imagine. According to this article, if Bolivia does not agree a trade deal with the US, 80,000 jobs and 250,000 people will be affected. While people may still buy Evo's demagoguery and think Fidel is a democrat and the US nothing but an evil empire, once their livelihoods are affected, they will not care much about it anyway. Given that in the past month Evo has seen his approval ratings drop by 12%, if the analysis is true, the situation could develop into a major crisis.

To all this, one question remains... where is the opposition?


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Morales' TCP, part II

Evo Morales is about a Free Trade agreement with Venezuela and Cuba. This FTA, called TCP is Morales' alternative to a Free Trade Agreement with the US. As pointed yesterday, why this TCP should be exclusive and prevent Bolivia from signing an agreement with the US is beyond reason (a noteworthy entry on this theme can be found in Guccio's blog).

Today, however, the Institute of Foreign Commerce notes that Bolivia already has trade agreements with both Venezuela and Cuba. Moreover, Bolivian exports to Cuba on 2005 amounted to an impressive $5291. Those are not millions, by the way. Bolivia exported a miserable five thousand dollars to Cuba. As I asked yesterday: how is this an alternative to the American market?

According to Choquehuanca, the TCP goes beyond trade. It will be also "cultural", but he does not elaborate further. He also points out that coca would be exported to Cuba and Venezuela under the TCP (here, at the end of the article). Suddenly, under the light of these events (1, 2), the TCP starts showing a whole new meaning...



Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Colombian Elections Primer

2006 is the year of Latin American elections. With the first round of the Peruvian elections gone (second still to come), the next big election in the region is that of Colombia. The Colombian elections are scheduled for May 28 and will see current president Alvaro Uribe running for reelection against Carlos Gaviria and populist leader Horacio Serpa.

In order to get familiar with the issues under consideration, the candidates, the way elections work and American interests in the region, go here. Mr. Teslik, from the Council on Foreign Relations, has written a very interesting and informative introduction to the forthcoming Colombian elections. Organized in the way of FAQ, all relevant points are easily explained and a lot of related pages are linked.

If this theme interests you, and you are looking for a place to start, Mr. Teslik's piece is highly recommended.



Colombia, Kolumbien, Colombia elections, Uribe

Government Wants to Take Over Foreign Investment

Brazilian steel factory EBX is announcing its departure from Bolivian soil, unless the government changes its ways. The current administration is accusing EBX of operating illegaly (so far it has not presented any proofs), while EBX says that this is not the case, that they are a far too big enterprise to be operating illegaly. Obviously, the case didn't go to the courts, for the Judiciary to decide who is right and who is not.

Evo just bullied EBX, apparently, to gain control of it. In an interview with Brazilian newspaper O Globo, EBX President Batista said that the Bolivian government is sending signals that they would be allowed to stay if and only if they were to accept the government taking over 51% of the project. EBX is not interested in caving to Evo's wishes, though. They'd rather leave the country.

Is there any surprise as to why FDI is virtually disappearing from Bolivia?

Lost Opportunity: EBX was going to invest $330 million in total, and already invested $148 million. According to them, this project would have generated 6000 jobs, although a letter to the government reduces this figure to 3500.


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Morales' TCP

Some time ago, Evo swore that he never would sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US, that he would negotiate a Trade Agreement of the Peoples (TCP). The difference, in Evo's words was that the TCP would not be an imposition from the empire and that it would preserve the sovereignity of the countries involved.

Well, today's front page headline is that Evo annouced a Free Trade Agreement with Venezuela and Cuba. This FTA is called TCP. So, Bolivia will have a trade agreement with Venezuela and Cuba, and will be able to sell its products without paying tariffs. Well, any trade agreement is good, but my question is: How is this an alternative to the American market? Most important: Why are both agreements mutually exclusive? Answers below, please.

In terms of figures, Cuba has a population of 11m and Venezuela has a population of 25m. Their PPP per capita incomes are $3300 and $6500, repspectively. So, this is a market that caters for 37m people, with a PPP per capita income of $5521 (weighted average). On the other hand, the American population is close to 300m (is 298m, to be precise) and the PPP per capita income is $42000. From this, it follows that Evo is substituting a huge market, with lots of cash to spend, for a tiny and poor market, where the only person spending (oil) money will be Chavez, to keep Evo screaming about how he defends Bolivian interests with sovereignity and Bolivian soy producers happy. So, if you really had to choose, which one would it be?

Source for the figures: CIA World Factbook.


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Puppet and Puppeteer, Part II: The Death of CAN

The extent to which Evo is dominated by Chavez is already getting out of control. Everything that has happened in the Andean Community (CAN) in the last week is nothing but a hopeless intent of getting two countries out of a benefitial trade deal with the US and bring them back to Venezuela's clutches. Let's take a look to the timeline of events:

April 20th: Hugo Chavez says that CAN is dead and that Venezuela will leave the deal. Evo Morales supports him.

April 21st: CAN Secretary asks for serenity until Chavez's intentions are clear. Exporters in Bolivia ask Evo to look for their markets (worth $500+ million) and Bolivian interests and not for Chavez's.

April 22nd: Chavez announces that Venezuela is officially leaving CAN. Bolivian Foreign Minister says that Bolivia will try to save the CAN and propose a meeting of presidents.

April 23rd: Evo follows Chavez's discourse and denounces Alvaro Uribe and Alejandro Toledo. He says that he understood how Uribe could sign an FTA, because he is an oligarch, but that Toledo has betrayed indigenous people in Peru and Latin America by agreeing with the empire.

April 24th: Peru, Colombia and CAN secretary Wagner say that Evo does not have a clue about what he is saying. Venezuela hears Bolivia's lament and is moved, so it proposes to go back to the CAN iff Peru and Colombia annul their FTAs with the US. Bolivian exporters ask Evo not to be Chavez's useful idiot.

What is clear is that the chain of events that started on April 20th is nothing but an act devised to coerce two countries out of the FTA. Nothing more. Chavez and Evo are nothing but brutish thugs who are unfit to start a civilized dialogue with other nations. They have to use coercion because there is no way anybody would listen to them without it. And, obviously, Evo's discourse about sovereign countries does not apply when Venezuela is the one interfering. Evo is nothing but the worst kind of demagogue.



Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Peru, Colombia, Kolumbien, CAN, Comunidad Andina, Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

The Puppet and the Puppeteer

On the one hand, you have Venezuelan President Chavez saying that "the empire's hand is behind the current chaos in Bolivia". On the other you have Bolivian President Evo saying that the US gave Fidel Castro a honeymoon period of 2 years 3 moths and to Chavez a similar 2-year one. But the, the US has decided not to give him the same grace period, because he believes that "they simply do not stand us". Why? "It's discrimination". Read it here.

Can't Evo notice he is just an inefficient president with no idea of public administration? Of course not. Because that it not the case... everything that happens in his administration is the oligarch's, the empire's or the crucenhos' fault, not his. He is just a poor indian person trying to make a difference in a society dominated by the rich and white, see?


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, Chavez

Birth of a Bolivian STASI?

Evo's Government Minister said that the Police could find its end in the Constituent Assembly if it did not modernize. While the police is considered to be one of the most corrupt institutions in Bolivia -which would make a reform long overdue- it is, once again, the rhetoric that worries me. According to the minister, the police had to be "more involved in the social, political, economic and cultural change under way in the country, a profound institutional reform" (emphasis added). Read the note here.

Does this mean that MAS will try to turn the Police into a Bolivian version of East Germany's STASI? Or perhaps some other official will say the exact opposite tomorrow, as it is this administration's custom? Only time will tell...


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Three Months of Evo

Today's La Razon published the following graph evaluating the current administration.

According to the graph, the following acts are positive:
1. Constituent Assembly and Referendum: Although the article cites this as positive based on how quickly the law was approved (1 month), is does not mention that the CA could signal the death for Bolivian democracy. If we consider that Chavez is Evo's role model, can we still put this among the positives? 'Fraid not.

2. Austerity: The graph says it is positive that the government cut salaries in the executive power half. However, by cutting the salaries of government workers in half, Evo is giving them incentives to become corrupt. If anything, Evo should have raised the salaries so that people working for the government do not have time or incentives to embark in corrupt activities, because they'd earn so much as it were anyway. What good does it make cutting a miserable president's salary in half, when the president is later caught trying to get $30 million richer? This should be another negative point.

3. Tarifa Dignidad: The president reduced, by decree, the cost of energy in 25%. While this is thought to have affected 2,4 million people, one should always be wary of government fixing prices. Today's the cost of energy, by tomorrow we have all prices frozen and a crisis similar to that in Allende's Chile or Siles Zuazo's Bolivia. When will governments learn that markets work best when left alone? Another negative.

4. Propais: In the last few weeks, the government said that it would create 100,000 jobs with $47 million. With only $470 per job (not taking into account administrative costs and the "corruption tax" that this administration will surely apply), it is doubtful that the jobs will last long or pay enough to make a difference. The government should realize that the best way to create jobs is giving incentives and security to private initiatives and not getting involved? Now, the logic behind this item may well be keynesian: the government is trying to boost aggregate demand. However, theory speaks of a closed and productive economy. Bolivia is neither. Therefore, this injection will probably end up increasing imports and not domestic production. I guess investors would appreciate more if the MASistas trying to take over institutions or the Sin Tierras are detained that this "boost to aggregate demand".

5. Pensions: Evo, once again by decree, ruled that pensions will be inversely proportional so that people who earned less will receive more..... what?!? Why exactly should this happen? Why should a person that earned less (and therefore contributed less) get in the more than a person that produced more and contributed more? Where does the money come from? The answer can only be explained with populism. Another negative.

6. Chile. Evo got closer to Chile and is about to start negotiations. OK, one positive. At least until Evo opens his mouth and messes things up.

7. Police. Evo is restructuring the police. While this was long overdue, there is the posibility that Evo turns the police into a political instrument, which would be bad. Thus, don't count this as a positive until it's done (and the police is not turned into a Gestapo).

Negatives: The negatives talk about corruption, loss of soja markets, extortion claims, nepotism and the reserved expenses cases that I have been blabbering about for the last 2 months. There is no mention about the unwilligness to enter into Free Trade Agreements (this is mentioned later in 'controversial actions'), inference into the Judiciary and lamentable state of the rule of law.

Pending: Nationalization, annulment of the 21060 Decree (the decree that ended years of statism and liberalized Bolivia's markets) and the minimum wage, which Evo wants to double. All of them would be negative.

Controversial Actions:
1. Replacement of public authorities with MAS militants, which Evo says is needed to go on with the revolution, is nothing but a shameless attempt to get unconstrained power. Negative.

2. Corruption. Negative.

3. Free Trade Agreements. The government is not willing to negotiate them. Negative.

4. Free Identification Program. Financed by Venezuela, this is nothing but an attempt to commit fraud in the forthcoming CA. Negative.

Balance: Heartbreakingly awful.


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Chaos in Bolivia

A quick read of today's newspapers show a country submerged into chaos, inefficiency and corruption. Morales administration is an easy prey for "social" interest groups that are giving MAS a taste of its own medicine and has fallen into the same kind of corruption it vowed to eliminate.
The 47% of Bolivians that did not vote for Evo knew that MAS didn't have any plan besides the shameful Constituent Assembly and now the lack of anything remotely resembling a plan is starting to show. Moreover, the administration has no respect for the rule of law, the separation of powers and (property) rights, while powerful "social" interest groups are fully aware of this administration's powerlessness, unpreparedness and lack of coordination.
The result is a mess, which does not resemble a country in any way. Just take a look at today's headlines, which I have put in the following categories:

Government's disregard for the rule of law:

Evo wants the Brazilian iron factory out of Bolivia
Evo said in Paraguay that enterprises operating out of the law in Bolivia had two choices: leave the country or be expelled. He was talking about Brazilian iron factory EBX. Now, it is obvious every single enterprise should operate according to the existing laws and those that do not should be punished. Punishment, however, should come once it has been proven, beyond reasonable doubts, that the enterprise was operating illegaly. EBX says it is operating according to the law and so far this is just the word of EBX against that of Evo. Moreover, it should be the Judiciary and not the Executive power the one that decides if the enterprise's guilt and the punishment. By taking matters in his hands, Evo is just showing his authoritarian tendencies and a complete disregard for the rule of law.

MAS attacks the Caja Petrolera de Salud
The Caja Petrolera de Salud is a national health service that is supposed to be "instutionalized", i.e. independent of the government. MAS militants tried taking a hospital that belongs to this service by force. They tried to impose Ascencio Mamani, a MAS militant, as director of the hospital and doctors and nurses had to fight to keep him out. This is just the latest of a series of attempts of taking over government institutions. Migrations, Customs, the Internal Revenue Service, the COD, the Caja Nacional (both health services), SEDUCA and INRA already had to deal with MAS' angry masses. Has anybody been arrested? Nope. They are MAS militants, after all.

Corruption:

Torrico asks for leave and his replacement is denounced
Whoever thought things would change with MAS, was right. Nobody said that the change would be for worse. In just under three months in power, MAS has been caught extorting the public sector workers, the President, (yes, Evo) has signed a Supreme Decree in order to build a road for an extra $30 million than estimated, has had to retire the ambassador to Japan because of corruption and now the Chief of Deputies from MAS, Gustavo Torrico, has asked the parliament for indefinite leave. HE says he wants to clear his name of all charges levied against him and sue former fiscal Catacora, who accused Torrico of using his influences to try to have a family member hired. Yesterday, Torrico was denounced once again of nepotism. According to Podemos, Torrico made FONVIS hire at least 84 persons since January. Among these people, 4 are related to him and members of MAS: his sister and three nephews. Of them, his sister and two nephews earn Bs. 6500 a month and the other nephew earns Bs. 5800. Minimum salary in Bolivia is around Bs. 450. His successor in the parliament will be Filiberto Guachalla. He is one of the signataries of the letter that asked public sector workers for 5% of their salaries. Also, according to some people, his signature is necessary to to get a job in the public sector.

In a different case, President of the Senate, MAS Senator Santos Ramirez, has been denounced for wrongdoings while he was still a MP. It seems that the Tiguinpaya municipality hired contractors from a company owned by Ramirez. According to Ramirez, the opposition is making this up, because they don't have anything else to do. Probably the best response by an accused official yet. Read it here.

Social Movements:

Several pieces indicate that MAS is against an evergrowing tide of discontent. You can read about two conflicts with miners. In both of them, miners are threatening to take over two mines. One is in Caracoles and belongs to Comibol (here) and the other is in Inquisivi and belongs to Grupo Minero Bajadeiro SRL (here). In both cases, the disregard for private investment from the government and the "social groups" is obvious. Most worrying is the fact that the government is not willing to stand up for propoerty rights.

Also, the ministers that were held captive by the people who don't want EBX to go released them, after hours of mistreatments and nobody has been detained because of this. Can you imagine Gordon Brown or Condeleeza Rice being held hostage and the police not arresting anyone? This move will just give the attackers the impression that they were right to trample all over the ministers rights and not be held accountable. More here.

It is not a matter of liking or disliking MAS' administration; in either case, one has to admit that the social movements have stepped over the line. Who are these people to take elected officials hostage? Who are these people to take over private property?

In other cases, the COB will define today if they will support Evo or not (here), while the Santa Cruz Civic Comittee will start a strike if Evo does not attend its demands in 7 days (here). It seems that Evo's methods can also work against them. Funny, in a way.

The Result:

UDAPE reports that Bolivia is losing foreign investment. In fact, according to the UDAPE report, Bolivia is the only country in the region where FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) has become negative: During 2005, FDI grew in $38,100 million in South America, while Bolivia lost $280 million. Although these trends started in 1999, the signals Bolivia is sending are not helping to get the FDI back. Read it here.

It seems there is no light at the end of the tunnel. And, it must be said, most of this capital flight is Evo's responsability.


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

90.74% of Votes counted in Peru

The last results show Lourdes Flores closing the gap on Alan Garcia, as only 0.63% stands between them. With 10% still to go, anything can happen. It seems that the expat vote is going for Lourdes, although this article reports that it may not be enough.
Ollanta Humala is still firm in the first place.


Ollanta Humala: 26.30%
Alan Garcia: 20.73%
Lourdes Flores: 20.10%

Source: Onpe



Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

Latin American Populism

Read the excellent article on Latin American populism that appeared in The Economist at VCrisis.

The article distinguishes between the left and populism, traces the roots of the phenomena and sees the development of populism in Latin America. It ends with the following paragraph:

Many Latin Americans believe that their countries are rich, whereas in truth they are not. Populists blame poverty on corruption, on a grasping oligarchy or, nowadays, on multinational oil or mining companies. That often plays well at the ballot box. But it is a misdiagnosis. Countries develop through a mixture of the right policies and the right institutions. Whatever their past achievements, the populists are leading Latin America down a blind alley.

A spot-on analysis. A must-read.



Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta Humala,
Venezuela, Chavez, Hugo Chavez

Garcia Asks to Nullify the Expatriate's Votes

Alan Garcia's party has formally asked to the Special Electoral Jury (JEE) to nullify the votes fo Peruvians living in Miami and Madrid. Both requests would be attended between today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday). JEE members will vote to decide the veredict.
The request follows alleged irregularities in the aforementioned cities. APRA alleges that Lourdes Flores' party was giving flyers and other propaganda, including telephone cards with Flores' picture on them, in Kendall's college campus, where the Miami election took place.
Regarding Madrid, APRA said that about 40% of those registered to vote didn't and cite the lack of organization as the reason.
Unidad Nacional points out that nothing happened in Miami and that this is just part of Garcia's attempt to get to the second round.
Read more here.


Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala, Second Round

The Sorry State of The Rule of Law in Bolivia

This time, I will not keep on writing about Bakovic, who was imprisoned just because Evo wanted to see him in jail (read about this case here). This time I will write about the lack of guarantees to enforce basic human rights in Bolivia. Indeed, Bolivia is starting to look like a Sergio Leone western rather than a country.

This report is about a family, who own a pice of land in Santa Cruz. They apparently own 20ha, which makes them oligarchs in the eyes of Evo. Well, it seems that this family called the police, because the Sin Tierra movement was threatening a takeover. The police attended the call: they did not see anything unusual and went away, leaving the family at the mercy of the Sin Tierras.

However, more than 100 Sin Tierras (ST) started their advances once againt the night after the police went away. They destroyed the fence and went into the unprotected property. In the words of the owner, "They came drunk and on drugs, willing to slit our throats or burn us alive". So they defended themselves: To gain time, they started using firearms, in order to scare the STs until the car was ready. The STs began to try to set fire to the building where the family was. In all the confusion, one of the ST was mortally wounded. Finally, the family got to escape. They had to drive a car without lights on and in the middle of the night, because they knew that their lives were on the stake.

Now the STs are accusing the owner of the land of killing one of them and say that they have people missing. What did the police do? The son and three nephews of the owner have been detained, as well as friends who were helping them to escape, so that the police can find out the one that killed the ST and try him. The Sin Tierras are all roaming free, probably looking for new lands to take over.

The chief of the STs said: "We wanted to pay him $5 for square meter, but he wanted $13, which is out of our possibilities". Geez, I guess that makes taking over property all right. He also demanded the owner to use his lands in an acceptable way. What nerve!

Am I the only one seeing something wrong here?

I hope Tuco at Evonomics posts his thoughts on these events.



Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

More on Evo Morales and MAS Double Standards

When Evo Morales assumed the Bolivian presidency on January 22, he clearly said "Reserved expenses cannot go on, reserved expenses only to steal and kill" and swore to get rid of them. He went on to say that he didn't any fear of eliminating these reserved expenses and that they shouldn't exist in a democracy.
Well, yesterday, Evo Morales' MPs ratified the validity of these expenses, which amount to Bs28.4 million. The oppositions thinks that reserved expenses will go towards the MAS Constituent Assembly campaign. Howeverm according to the Ministery of Government, this will not happen. In fact, the difference between reserved expenses in other administrations and reserved expenses in this administration will be that expenses now will be "completely transparent", the speaker for the Ministery said. Obviously, there is no word other than theirs on what procedures they will use to make these expenses completely transparent.
After yesterday's reports on corruption and extortion claims, what will come next?
Read more here.



Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

MAS: Extortion, Internal Conflict, Nepotism and Corruption

During the last few days, several news arose showing the true nature of Evo Morales' administration. According to different reports, MAS could be facing their first corruption scandal -which they dismissed as a "mistake"-, while on other sides, proofs of extortion, internal conflict and nepotism appear.

Extortion

Today's front page in La Razon is clear: "MAS forces public sector workers to contribute". The article shows that in the run for the Constituent Assembly, MAS sent a letter ordering all public sector workers to give 5% of their salaries to the party. In what is by now a common practice of the administration, contradictions soon began to appear. Vice president Garcia Linera said that his party would not force anybody to give them money and doubted the authenticity of the letter, while the Chief of Deputies, Gustavo Torrico, confirmed its existence. Torrico then said that this order showed the transparency of the MAS government. "What should we do?", he asked, "As a party use state money?... We work with money from us, we always did it that way (sic)". Torrico also said that the letter had a redaction problem, as donations are voluntary. A copy of the letter is shown below. You can see for yourself the "redaction problem" in the letter. You can also note MAS' motto at one side: Territorio, poder, coca.


Last Sunday, Morales ordered their MPs to contribute to their party. He was quoted as saying: "Here's the vicepresident, bring your timesheets and we will discount [the "donation"]. I have been told that not everybody wants to sign; this is an obligation and is not up to discussion".


Internal Conflict

This is nothing but the latest piece on what appears to be a highly disorganized party. According to this report, the last round took place yesterday when the newly appointed District Director of the Santa Cruz Customs wanted to assume his position. 50 persons carrying signs protested while MAS substitute MP for Santa Cruz, Adriana Gil, supported the protesters. She lamented that MAS is sending workers from La Paz and taking away jobs from Santa Cruz supporters.

This is the last on a series of protests from MASistas looking to be appointed for public sector. The services of Migration and Education, state-run Channel 7 and INRA all have suffered from MASistas looking for easy jobs. Read the whole thing here.

Nepotism

Although MAS has been accused of nepotism from the start (here), things are getting worse. Los Tiempos reports that Foreign Minister, David Choquehuanca, and former candidate for prefect in La Paz, Manuel Morales Davila, have relatives in the public administration.

The nephew of Choquehuanca works now in the parliament, so that MAS is now denying nepotism claims by saying that this can not be the case, as one works for the Executive and the other for the Legislative power, which are independent from one another (the most impressive thing about this denial is that it seems that MAS actually knows that these are supposed to be separate and independent powers).

On the second case, Manuel Morales Davila (not related to Evo), has his Son Manuel and his daughter Marcia in important state positions. Marcia is caretaker president of the Bolivian Customs, while Manuel Jr. is adviser for the president of the state-run oil company, YPFB. There are no denials on this one so far, although MAS stated that they would make an enquiry.

Corruption

This cynically labeled as "mistake" from MAS could be the first corruption scandal to hit the administration. The first article appeared yesterday in La Razon. According to the article, the government omitted the licitation process and subscribed a $130 million contract with a Brazilian enterprise for the construction of a road. Moreover, this contract was supported by a Supreme Decree (N. 28623) and was denounced from jail by Bakovic, the former president of the National Roads Service (SNC), who was, incidentally, imprisoned without a trial and without charges, other than Evo's wishes to see him imprisoned, being levied against him (read more about Bakovic's case here). He said that the contract was signed without the mandatory licitation process and was overpriced. Perhaps this is the real reason Bakovic's in jail?

The reaction from the current president of the SNC (a MAS pawn, obviously) was as cold and cynical as things can get: "We have made a mistake and we will correct it". The vice-minister for coordination with social movements expressed himself on the same line: "We are not an infallible government and is noble to admit the mistake". He also said that the government would take the blame for it in a collective manner.

Supreme Decree 28263, signed by Evo Morales, authorized the SNC to override the licitation process and gave the SNC time to make the cost analysis of the project. Now, MAS is hoping to avoid the scandal by drafting a new Supreme Decree to annul the aforementioned one.

Meanwhile, Podemos has called for the resignation of current SNC president, Patricia Ballivian, and the Minister for Services and Public Works, Salvador Ric. Podemos correctly point out that this is a blatant show of corruption and that it cannot be passed as a mistake. Read it here.


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

Peruvian Expats (Update 2)

Results with 82.6% of the votes counted show the following results:

Humala: 26.38%
Flores: 20.51%
Garcia: 21.28%

Source: ONPE

If these results hold, the second round may be contested by Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala.

There is one glimpse of hope, though, which indicates that Flores could be second. This glimpse is given by Peruvian expats. According to El Comercio, Flores is so far getting 62.2% of those emitted by Peruvians living outside Peru. The article also indicates that Peruvian expats account for 2.8% of the vote. If Flores maintains this share of expat votes, and ONPE's results hold, than she will get an advantage of 0.97% over Garcia, effectively winning the second place and going to second round (please note that I am assuming that the above-mentioned results by ONPE do not include expat vote, as only 3,8% of the expat vote has been counted).

Update 1: Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit has recent information that indicates that the expat vote is following the same pattern as the domestic vote, i.e. Humala is coming in first, with Garcia following and Flores just behind Garcia. Really sad.

Read the reaction of foreing investors here and here.

Update 2: Mora y Leon has corrected the post mentioned in Update 1. It seems that that post was the result of misreading this post. Read Mora y Leon's correction here.



Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

Too much already

Yesterday, Evo Morales confirmed the presence of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez for the inauguration act of the Constituent Assembly. He also stated that he would everything in his power to secure Fidel Castro's presence in the act (here).

In a Congress of Women Peasants, he announced that

Comrade Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, has told me that he will be present in the installation of the Constituent Assembly..... We will ask that the Foreign Minister negotiates the presence of Fidel Castro.

I wonder, how is it possible that people still don't realize what this guy is trying to pull?



Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez

74.53% of Votes counted in Peru

Ollanta Humala: 29.59%
Lourdes Flores: 24.89%
Alan Garcia: 24.96%

Source: ONPE

Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

52.69% of Votes Counted in Peru

With 52.69% of the votes counted, Humala still leads the Peruvian elections. Lourdes Flores is still in second place and Garcia still in third. The difference between the first and the third is less than two points, so things are not definite yet and will change as more votes are counted. So far, the results are as follows:

Ollanta Humala (Union Por el Peru): 24.675%
Lourdes Flores (Unidad Nacional): 23.361%
Alan Garcia (Partido Aprista Peruano): 22.716%

Source: ONPE

So far results indicate that Humala and Flores would be the ones going to the second round.

Mora y Leon at Publius Pundit discusses electoral geography and wonders whether results so far may be reflecting a "geography effect":

Peru is kind of funny electorally, and geography matters there - it’s basically Lima, the north and the south. The north is copper country and they mostly vote free markets for exports. The south is Indian country and they vote for the Evo-Morales left. Lima, home of Hernando de Soto, tends to be pro-free market. So if this tally came from the south, no big deal, the numbers will likely show reason in the end. But if this is Lima being counted, there’s a problem. A big one. Peru may well have a choice between a leftist with a bad record and a superleftist who is likely to hop into bed with Hugo Chavez.

(This comment refers to a point, earlier during the count, when Ollanta was first and Garcia second). Read this post here.

The blog Peru 2006, from the Political Sciences department at the British Columbia University in Canada has also important and valuable news. In one post referring to Transparencia's exit polls, Peru2006 shows that the estimated result is expected to be, depending on the estimation technique, either

Ollanta Humala: 29.85%
Lourdes Flores: 24.42%
Alan Garcia: 24.27%

or

Ollanta Humala: 30.32%
Lourdes Flores: 23.50%
Alan Garcia: 24.20%

This means that Ollanta Humala is expected to take part on the second round, and that results will only give us the second name. If estimation technique N. 2 is right, then Peru will have to choose between the candidates that Mora y Leon describes as "a leftist with a bad record and a superleftist who is likely to hop into bed with Hugo Chavez".

The margin of error of Transparencia in the past has been within 0.1% and 0.2% of the actual results. According to the post, the methodology used by Transparencia is inputting data until results become stable.


Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

A Quote Before the Elections

One day before elections take place in Peru, read this Humala quote from earlier this week:

"No candidate who represents continuity, including Mr. Alan Garcia, will stay a whole year if he does not attend to the social demands of the population".

Threatening.

Read more Humala quotes here.


Peru, Peru elections,Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

The BBC on Latin America: Argentina

Yesterday's BBC report was on Argentina. The report focused on Argentinian cinema and not on politics.


Bolivia, Cinema,

The BBC on Latin America: Bolivia

Yesterday's BBC Newsnight report on Latin America was on Bolivia (watch it here, 50m. long; Bolivia's bit starts at the 13th minute). So far, this was the most informed of the bunch. While it did not give a comprehensive view of Evo's threat to democracy, Venezuela's interference or even the regional conflict, it was on the mark when it showed poverty as the root of the political vacuum that allowed Evo to gain power. Paul Mason also mentions that Bolivian political institutions are strong. I wonder what happened in the last five years, then...

The country's profile was interspersed with bits of an interview with Morales. In this interview, Morales talked about what you would expect: an international conspiracy against his government, for which there is no evidence as of now, the 'neoliberal' state tying his hands, race issues and, of course, the Constituent Assembly (CA). Interestingly enough, Evo was the first to admit that the CA is designed to give his administration more power. He uses a dangerous, hate-inducing rhetoric to make his point. Read the interview from where Morales' bit were obtained here (in Spanish). Reading the rest of the interview, where Morales says that the CA will have unlimited power, makes one wonder exactly when this interview took place. An article on BBC regarding this interview (in English).

Other interesting bit was an interview with Abram Delgado, a little-known representant of one of El Alto's social organizations. He said that El Alto didn't really care whether the president was Morales, that after the grace period (one or two years) they would bring him down if they perceived him as inefficient or not maintaning his electoral promises.

On the downside, the portrait of Santa Cruz was somewhat inaccurate. Santa Cruz was shown as a predominantly white region, where all of Bolivia's energetic resources could be found. It is important to remember that Santa Cruz is more than the city, for starters. In the Santa Cruz department, there is also widespread poverty and, racially speaking, whites are still the minority, regardless of what the former Miss Bolivia may have said. Also, one of the most important points regarding Santa Cruz's economic performance, as opposed to that of La Paz, is climate. Santa Cruz's soil is much more fertile and agriculture-friendly than the Altiplano. Regarding energetic resources, Santa Cruz does not have all of Bolivia's reserves. In fact, Tarija is becoming an increasingly important energetic hub. Some rumours even point to Northern La Paz as an oil-rich region.

I was also dissapointed not to hear more on the CA battle. Seeing how Evo is Chavez's pupil and how he said that he wants to gain power through it, I think that the repoert should have discussed it in more detail.

Paul Mason's blog from Bolivia can be found here.


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales

The BBC on Latin America: China's Influence

The special coverage of Latin America went on last night. The topic this time was the growing influence of China in Latin America -although the report only covered China's influence in Peru and Brazil. This report, kept the simplistic views and, perhaps more importantly for a newsagency, reported old news. Read, for example, this months-old article on Brazil and China. The honeymoon has ended and Brazilian producers are starting to see China as a threat, as well. Please mind this article was written in August 2005.

The report shows a Latin America that is happy to receive the attention of anybody other than the US. The US is shown once again as the bad guy, with the Monroe Doctrine taking a front seat in the analysis. Funnily enough, there is no mention of Mexico's President Vicente Fox rallying NAFTA against the Asian threat.

If you didn't catch it, you didn't miss much. On the upside, reporter Gavin Essler seems to be having a great time in Peru.





Brazil, Peru, China, BBC

Constituent Assembly Candidate Lists (Update 1)

Political parties and citizen groups registered yesterday for the Constituent Assembly (CA). There are 10 groups running towards this election at national level: MAS, Podemos, UN, MNR, MIR, UCS, MBL, CN, Muspa and Movimiento Ayra.

The first four fronts are the only ones that have parliamentary representation and run -with different levels of success- in the December elections.
A second group would be comprised of older political parties that, because internal problems and disintegration, did not run in December. These are Jaime Paz Zamora's MIR (Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria), Fernandez's UCS (Union Civica Solidaridad), and MIR split cell MBL (Movimiento Bolivia Libre). As I understand, MBL has colluded with MAS in Cochabamba, so that MAS can have the three constituents. Other old political party in the run, though not at national level, is Tuto Quiroga's former party, ADN. According to the National Electoral Court, ADN is presenting candidates in all departments except Beni, Cochabamba, Pando and Santa Cruz. In those departments, ADN is running with different alliances.
The last group, comprised by CN (Concertacion Nacional), Muspa (Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica) and Moviemiento Ayra, we have the newbies and I have not been able to find much information on them.

Among those running for places in the CA, we have UN's founder Doria Medina, ex-president of the Senate Vaca Diez, as well asmilitariess, artists and periodists. Quiroga, Mesa and Rodriguez Veltze are not running with any front.

Since the registration, MAS has suffered several complaints. CIDOB (the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples in Bolivia) has, for example, expressed their dissatisfaction because MAS did not take into account their candidates in all agreed electoral districts. The National Council of Ayllus and Marcas of the Qollasuyo, the Sindicated Federation of Peasant Workers of La Paz, the Santa Cruz Ethnic Peoples Coordinator and the Bolivian Confederation of Disabled Persons expressed similar complaints.

Update 1: According to today's La Razon, there are 12, not 10, fronts running for the CA at national level. From these, 9 are political parties, 2 are citizen's groups and 1 is an alliance of different groups (Podemos). Moreover, there are also other 13 groups running only at regional level. The list of contenders, by departments is as follows (taken from La Razon):

LA PAZ

• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Asociación Social Patriótica (ASP)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

SANTA CRUZ

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Autonomía Social Integradora (ASI)
–Autonomía Para Bolivia (APB)
–Movimiento de Acción Ciudadana (Maca)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)
* Alianza 3-MNR (A3-MNR)
* Alianza Andrés Ibáñez (ADN, MIR y UCS)

COCHABAMBA

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Convergencia Democrática Ciudadana (CDC)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

POTOSÍ

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Movimiento Originario Popular (MOP)
–Alianza Social (AS)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

CHUQUISACA

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

ORURO

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (MUSPA)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
–Movimiento San Felipe de Austria (MSFA)
–Movimiento Autónomo Regional (MAR)
–Alianza de Bases (Alba)
–Movimiento de Integración Boliviana (Mibol)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

TARIJA

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Acción Democrática Nacionalista (ADN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos)

BENI

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Concertación Nacional (CN)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos-ADN)

PANDO

• Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)
• Unidad Nacional (UN)
• Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR)
• Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR)
• Movimiento Ayra (Ayra)
• Movimiento de Unidad Social Patriótica (Muspa)
–Transformación Democrática y Patriótica (Tradepa)
* Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos-ADN)

• PARTIDO POLÍTICO
– AGRUPACIÓN CIUDADANA
* ALIANZA


Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales, Constituent Assembly

Interview with Ollanta Humala

Argentina's newspaper Pagina/12 has published an interview with candidate Ollanta Humala. It is interesting to note that while Humala speaks far better than your average populist, Chavez-would-be candidate, the ideas still remain. Specially enlightening is his answer about a potential Lourdes Flores government. "I believe it would be very difficult that Lourdes Flores gets to finish a year in power", he says. His role then would be in the "democratic opposition", he adds. Among other familiar points, he wants to revise the contracts of energy companies, industrialize coca and nationalize natural resources.

It is also interesting to note that Humala does not consider himself as being either leftist or rightist. The lack of a proposal beyond the abovementioned points and a -you probably guessed by now- Constituent Assembly may be the cause.

Not surprisingly, he denies abuses against human rights and intentions of becoming an authoritarian ruler.


Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Humala, Ollanta Humala

The BBC on Latin America: Peru and Venezuela

Yesterday, the BBC started a series of reports about what they call "one of the world's most under-reported big stories". They are referring to Latin Ameica's shift to the left.
Yesterday's report was about the forthcoming Peruvian elections -read Ollanta Humala- and Chavez. You can see the report here (about 1hr. long).

However, I must say I was dissapointed with the report. The report's hypothesis is very simplistic: the root of the current political situation in Latin America is the US's war on terrorism. Because of the war on terrorism, the US has neglected its backyard and is about to lose it. The report goes on to say that the US has undermined more than 40 Latin American governments and, basically, is the cause of widespread poverty in the region. This view is tremendously misinformed for one of the biggest news agencies in the world.

Let's put things straight. The US has a deal of great influence in the region. And yes, there has been some intervention in the past. The report failed to say, on the other hand, that during the cold war, the US was not the only country intervening in the region and that Latin America was not the only disputed area. Does anybody remember Germany, for example?
Also, besides Puerto Rico, all countries in the region are independent, which means that their success or failure does not depend on the US. So, the current situation cannot be fully attributed to what the US does or does not do. The root of Latin America's political situation -to the extent things can be generalized- lies in the countries themselves. Widespread corruption, weak institutions, decades of interventionist and populist dictatorships/governments and lack of incentives to private investment did the trick. None of this was mentioned. This just perpetuates the view that we Latin Americans are inefficient imbeciles with a clear conscience: everything that happens is somebody else's (read: the US) fault.


Moreover, the report seemed too sensationalist, perhaps more in tone with The Sun than with what the BBC is usually associated. When Ollanta Humala was interviewed, the reporter seemed eager to hear how he hated Bush, and most of his questions were going towards the objective. Humala did not humour him and said that he was accountable towards Peruvians and not Bush. Nobody mentioned his alter ego, the one who used torture in the 1980s. Two lesser candidates to the presidential race were also interviewed, but they were still on the campaign trail and did not say anything important. When Otto Reich (Assistant US Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere 2001-2) was interviewed, it seemed like the reporter only wanted to hear laments on how the US regrets the loss of Latin America. To top things up, Chavez's profile was extremely biased and presented a favourable view of the dictator as a champion working for the poor. Only a fleeting mention of the persecution to opposition candidates could be heard. Nothing on the persecution suffered by Sumate or the electoral fraud committed in December, nothing on his new consitution, nothing on the limits imposed to the free press and the trials to periodists and nothing on the destruction of the economic apparatus.

The report is supposed to be the first in a series that will be aired during this week. Let's hope the remaining episodes have more substance. I really hope my TV license did not finance this.




Peru, Peru Elections, Ollanta, Ollanta Humala, Venezuela, Chavez, Humala, Hugo Chavez

Bolivia Weekend News: On The Rule of Law

On Sunday, two noteworthy pieces of news appeared in La Razon. The first has to do with the arrest of the ex-president of the Servicio Nacional de Caminos (National Roads Service, SNC), Jose Maria Bakovic. The second has to do with the president approval ratings.

Regarding the first, Bakovic was arrested and sent to prison without charges, other than Evo Morales saying that there was corruption in the SNC and that he hoped Bakovic was sent to prison. As we know by now, Evo Morales has the custom to speak first and think later. Two examples that come to mind are those against Banana exporters and against the US, because of the bombings.

Human Rights noticed some irregularities. First, Bakovic is old enough not to be imprisoned while being tried. Even the judge in charge recognized that Bakovic would not escape during the trial if he was not imprisoned. And second, the habeas corpus writ presented by Bakovic's lawyers was denied by the judge. This second point is an extremely rare occurrence, as I understand. Obviously, the prosecution is downplaying these occurrences.

So, why was Bakovic imprisoned? Signs point to Executive interference in the Judiciary. After all, the President of the Republic has publicly expressed his wish of Bakovic going to jail before any charges against the accused are known. The opposition is, in the meanwhile, too concerned with the constituent assembly to notice. Why is the President acting in this way? The easy answer points to shameless populism. Evo wants the people to know who is in charge, and, according to the latest polls (here comes the second story), people is reacting. Indeed, the latest polls by Apoyo, Opinion y Mercado shows that Evo's approval rate is 80% in the central axis (La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz).

Evo is deemed as a threat to democracy and the rule of law in most of the Bolivian Blogosphere. However, while most people is waiting for the Constituent Assembly to take place in order for Evo to kill democracy, few are noticing that the rule of law is weaker by the day.




Bolivia, Bolivien, Evo, Evo Morales